Market News

Another down day for soybeans, corn on crop expectations

Soybeans were sharply lower on speculative and technical selling. Most forecasts have warmer, drier weather to start September, but stress could be limited by generally good soil moisture levels. At this point, the trade is dialing in a record crop and while pod counts from a major tour this week haven’t met expectations in some areas, they’ve been high in others. New crop export demand is strong after the drop in price, even with China still buying beans from Brazil. Last week’s new crop sales were 61.6 million bushels, led by China and unknown destinations. Old crop sales were a marketing year low and a net reduction, not uncommon this late in the marketing year. Ahead of Thursday’s open, China purchased 198,000 tons and unknown destinations picked up 132,000 tons, while Vietnam bought 105,000 tons of U.S. soybean meal, all for 2024/25 delivery. Soybean meal and oil were down on the lower move in beans and the fundamental implications of a big domestic crop. Crush margins remain in positive territory.

Corn was lower on speculative and technical selling. Corn is watching late development conditions, along with the results from a major private crop tour. Yield numbers have generally been solid and harvest should be close in parts of the extreme southern Corn Belt. The USDA’s updated supply, demand, and production numbers are out September 12^th. New crop sales were strong last week, due in part to the recent decline in price. The total was 50.8 million bushels, mainly to Mexico, followed distantly by Guatemala. Old crop sales were a marketing year low at 4.7 million tons, with Japan and South Korea topping the list against a significant cancelation by unknown destinations. Still, the 2023/24 export pace remains ahead of what’s needed to meet USDA projections for the marketing year, which ends next week. Thursday morning, Mexico bought 110,490 tons of 2024/25 U.S. corn.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling, along with the higher trade in the dollar during the session. Wheat saw another round of pressure from global prices, mainly Paris milling wheat and Russia, while watching Canada’s rail strike, which could have a big impact on movement. The U.S. spring wheat harvest is catching up, but more near-term delays are possible and rain could impact quality. The U.S. winter wheat harvest should wrap up soon. Export sales last week were 18.1 million bushels, with the Philippines and Mexico the big weekly buyers. The 2024/25 pace is faster than 2023/24, even with the ongoing heavy competition from the Black Sea region. Export demand could improve further due to quality and yield issues in France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine, along with some early crop concerns in Argentina.