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Another down day for soybeans, corn, wheat
Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling. The USDA’s national crop rating held at 66% good to excellent with near-term development conditions mostly seen as favorable. The question of just how many acres were planted in 2025 gets its initial answer on the 30th, with the USDA also releasing the quarterly grain stocks numbers next Monday. Still, further adjustments are likely once prevent plant numbers start to roll in. There was also spillover from bean oil which is down on the drop in crude oil. Soybean meal followed beans and oil lower, with additional pressure from demand questions. Commodities in general continue to wait for any announcements on tariff adjustments and trade deals ahead of the Trump administration’s self-imposed “90 deals in 90 days” deadline of July 8th, with soybeans especially focused on China.
Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. The national condition rating dipped to 70% good to excellent, which is still good, and 4% of the crop is silking, primarily in southern growing areas. This week’s weather could jumpstart that phase of development in other portions of the Corn Belt. Still, if the pattern extends into July, it could trim yield potential. The trade’s also watching harvest activity in Argentina and Brazil. That second crop harvest in Brazil has been delayed in some areas by rain. CONAB’s updated look at Brazil’s crops is out July 10th. Mexico bought 630,000 tons of U.S. corn ahead of the open, with 554,400 tons of that for 2025/26, and 75,600 tons for 2026/27. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol supply, production, and export numbers are out Wednesday. The USDA’s attaché for Mexico has 2025/26 corn production at 24.5 million tons, up from the 23 million in 2024/25 on strong demand and better weather, with imports next marketing year at 24.8 million tons, compared to 25.3 million marketing year, largely due to that rise in production.
The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. Those losses were despite declines in both the winter and spring wheat ratings and the ongoing slow pace of the winter wheat harvest. More rain is in the forecast for parts of the U.S. Plains, either delaying winter wheat harvest activity or potentially boosting spring wheat conditions. The trade is also monitoring conditions in Argentina, Australia, Canada, China, Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. The European Union’s crop agency MARS raised its soft wheat yield outlook citing results southern growing areas. The USDA’s attaché for Mexico sees 2025/26 wheat production at 1.7 million tons, compared to 2.645 million in 2024/25 due to drought and a dip in domestic prices, with imports rising to 6.4 million tons to make up for that shortfall. Updated U.S. and global production estimates from the USDA are out July 11th.
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