Market News

Corn and soybeans fall as U.S. harvest and South American weather drive markets

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling, pulling contracts to a lower weekly finish. The trade continues to monitor the U.S. harvest and South American planting weather, expecting generally good all-around progress in the next few days. The Rosario Grain Exchange left its outlook for Argentina’s soybean crop at 47 million tons, noting better weather than the past few planting seasons. There was also some bearishness attached to concerns about a planned end of month meeting on tariffs with China following comments by President Trump. Still, with three weeks remaining until that scheduled face-to-face meeting, the situation continues to be fluid. Soybean meal and oil futures were down on the bearish tone of the soy complex, with oil seeing additional pressure from the drop in crude oil.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling, compounding what would have already been a week-to-week decline. Corn is also watching the U.S. harvest pace and planting conditions in South America, with rain in the forecast for dry parts of Brazil. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 25.6% of Argentina’s crop is planted. CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil’s crops is set for Tuesday, October 14^th. The next USDA supply, demand, and production update is a big question mark because of the ongoing partial shutdown of the federal government, with no end to that stoppage in sight. Demand is solid but low water levels on parts of the Mississippi River are limiting movement to the Gulf. China’s Ag Ministry this week lowered its corn import outlook by 1 million tons to 6 million tons. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says corn exports since the start of the marketing year July 1^st are 974,000 tons, nearly 70% below this time last year.

The wheat complex is lower on fund and technical selling, with the three U.S. pits all closing lower for the week. The big bearish factor for wheat continues to be the rising global supply following increased production in Canada, Europe, and Russia. U.S. winter wheat planting weather and development conditions in Argentina are mostly favorable. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 96% of Argentina’s wheat crop is in normal to excellent condition. Stateside, the trade sentiment is that about half of the crop has been planted, but without the USDA’s weekly crop progress and condition report, it’s difficult to know how much of an advance in activity there was over the past week. Globally, wheat is also watching development weather in Australia and planting conditions in Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says year-to-date wheat exports are 5.12 million tons, 24.7% slower than the year ago pace. Russia’s Ag Ministry says the running total for the 2025 wheat harvest is 91.5 million tons, adding new crop wheat acreage might fall 6% as farmers switch to more profitable oilseeds. Egypt’s state grain buyer reportedly purchased wheat from Kazakhstan for the first time in more than a decade.