Market News

Corn ekes out modest post-WASDE gain

Soybeans were lower on commercial and technical selling. The USDA made no changes to the domestic supply and demand tables this month, with not a lot of adjustments on the global side of the ledger either. CONAB did increase its soybean production guess for Brazil to 169.606 million tons on an improved yield estimate. CONAB’s next round of numbers for Brazil is out July 10^th, with the USDA’s updated supply and demand estimates out July 11^th. Export sales numbers were bearish. Old crop hit a marketing year low at 2.3 million bushels. Indonesia and Egypt led the way, with a big cancelation by unknown destinations. New crop sales of 2.1 million bushels were primarily to Taiwan and Japan. That big old crop cancelation could have been China, which has dialed back demand for U.S. beans on tariffs and Brazil’s current price dominance. Soybean meal was mixed, mostly higher, on bull spreading, while bean oil was lower with the ongoing questions about domestic biofuels policy. Old and new crop balance sheets for soybean products were unchanged.

Corn was modestly higher on short covering and technical buying. Old crop ending stocks were down 50 million bushels to 1.365 billion on a higher export guess, largely as expected, which pulled new crop stocks 50 million lower to 1.75 million. No changes to production this month, any adjustments will wait until after the USDA’s planted area totals, out at the end of the month. U.S. development weather looks generally favorable. Global old and new crop changes were largely negligible. CONAB now has the second corn crop at 101.01 million tons, up 1.2% on the month and 12.2% on the year, with harvest just getting underway. Total production was also above a month ago at 128.253 million tons, which would be 11% more than 2024. Old crop export sales of 31.2 million bushels were below average, mainly to Japan and Mexico, with a cancelation by unknown destinations, while new crop had a net reduction of 1.2 million bushels, following a cancelation by unknown.

The wheat complex was mixed. Chicago and Kansas City were down with the USDA raising winter wheat production slightly, while global changes were minimal. Domestically, winter wheat production is now seen at 1.382 billion bushels, with an average yield of 53.7 bushels per acre, with modest changes for hard and soft red winter, and a 1% increase for combined white winter production. Minneapolis was up, waiting for more rain in the northern U.S. Plains. 2024/25 U.S. wheat stocks held at 841 million bushels, while 2025/26 was lowered 25 million to 898 million on an increase in exports. The trade continues to monitor weather in Argentina, Australia, Canada, China, Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. New crop wheat export sales of 14.3 million bushels were under the prior week, with Mexico and Indonesia topping the list. Cumulative 2024/25 sales were 14% larger than 2023/24. The 2025/26 marketing year for wheat got underway June 1^st.