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Corn finishes Friday firm
Soybeans were mixed, mostly modestly lower, while still closing firm for the week in the most active months. Beans consolidated Friday with some influence during the session from both soybean meal and soybean oil. The March contract did trade above $10 during the session but was unable to close above that mark. Crop conditions generally look favorable in most of Argentia and Brazil, which limits upside potential, even with the tighter, but still positive, crush margins and overall good demand. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 53.8% of Argentina’s soybean crop has been planted. Soybean meal was down and bean oil was up on spread adjustments tied to demand expectations for those products. Argentina is shipping more meal, while Indonesia’s anticipated move to 50% blend biodiesel would have an impact on global vegetable oil supplies.
Corn was modestly higher on commercial and technical buying, adding onto what would have already been a firm weekly finish. There was another round of support from good feed, fuel, and export demand, even with the probability of a big crop out of South America. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 47.8% of Argentina’s corn crop is planted. Still, the big test for South America’s crop will be the second corn crop for Brazil, the source of most of their exports, which is planted after soybeans. The USDA’s updated supply, demand, and production numbers are out on Tuesday the 10th and CONAB’s new outlook for Brazil is slated for Thursday the 12th.
The wheat complex was mixed, with nearby months at the three U.S. pits seeing a solid weekly gain. Winter wheat conditions are the best in years, but forecasts for parts of the Plains are drier. Even then, what really matters for wheat isn’t the rating when the crop heads into dormancy, or even the weather during dormancy, but the conditions when the crop breaks dormancy in spring. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 48.1% of Argentina’s wheat crop is harvested. Argentina now has the lowest price on the global market, just under Russia. Russia’s crop is entering dormancy in dismal shape, with Moscow expected to cap exports during the second half of the marketing year and raise export tariffs. While Australia is set for a bigger crop, recent rainfall in some key growing areas could impact quality. The trade’s also monitoring weather in Europe and Ukraine. France’s Ag Ministry says 96% of winter wheat is planted with 86% of the crop called good to very good, down 1% on the week.
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