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Corn firm, soybeans mostly up Monday

Soybeans were steady to higher. Beans are watching U.S. planting and development weather, with the first USDA national crop rating of the season out after the close. 72% of the crop is in good to excellent shape, up 13% from the first 2023 rating, with 87% of the crop planted and 70% emerged, both ahead of the respective five-year averages. The USDA’s supply and demand report is out Wednesday and CONAB’s new outlook for Brazil is Thursday. Soybean oil was up on commercial buying, while soybean oil was mixed, adjusting spreads. The NOPA revised its April member crush number to 169.436 million bushels, up 402,000 from the initial guess after adding in previously missing data. That also revised soybean oil stocks higher. Soybean export inspections were a two-week low, above last week, but below last year, primarily to Mexico and Germany.

Corn was modestly higher on short covering and technical buying. Analysts were expecting planting to be nearly wrapped up with a high condition rating. As of Sunday, 74% of the crop is in good to excellent condition, down 1% on the week, with 95% planted and 85% emerged, both close to normal. Most forecasts have a move to warmer, drier weather in much of the region, which will test the soil moisture recharging rainfall that has delayed planting in large portions of the Corn Belt. Brazil’s AgRural says 10.4% of the second crop harvest in center/south growing areas is complete, the fastest on record. APK Inform lowered its guess for Ukraine’s corn crop to less than 27 million tons, compared to 31 million a year ago. Argentina is expected to make good harvest progress this week ahead of more rain in some areas. U.S. export inspections were up on the week, but down on the year, and a two-week low, with Mexico and Japan topping the list. The new marketing year for corn, and soybeans, starts September 1st.

The wheat complex was sharply lower on fund and technical selling, along with the higher trade in the dollar during the session. Turkey’s decision to suspend wheat imports until October has pressured global prices, which spilled over into U.S. trade. The recent relative strength of the dollar mutes some of the potential support from the decline in price at least slightly as it makes U.S. goods more expensive on the export market. This is also expected to put more wheat from Russia up for global sales. The U.S. winter wheat harvest is advancing with reports of generally good yields and quality. For winter wheat, 47% of the crop is called good to excellent, down 2%, with 89% headed and 12% harvested, both faster than usual. For spring wheat, 72% of the crop is rated good to excellent, 2% lower, with 98% planted and 87% emerged, just ahead of the typical rates. France’s AgriMer says 62% of soft wheat is in good to excellent condition, up 1% on the week. The recent run of bad weather in Russia and Ukraine is impacting production and export estimates for two of the world’s top wheat exporters. U.S. wheat export inspections were lower than the week before, but above this time last year, with the Philippines and Mexico leading the way.

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