Market News

Corn manages modest Monday gains

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling. Soybeans are watching weather in South America, with planting reportedly wrapped up in Brazil. Harvest activity for very early planted soybeans is just getting underway in parts of northern Brazil, but more widespread harvest activity will not get going until next month. ABIOVE raised its guess for Brazil’s crop to 168.7 million tons. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers is out January 10^th, with CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil set for the 14^th. The NOPA crush for November was lower than expected and down from October’s all-time high for any month, but up from November 2023. Soybean export inspections were lower than the previous week, but higher than a year ago, primarily to China and Mexico. Soybean meal was firm, while bean oil was lower on the adjustment of product spreads.

Corn was modestly higher on commercial and technical buying. Overall demand continues to be solid, even if there are some signs of a slowdown. Export inspections were up on the week and the year, with Mexico and Japan leading the pack. Crop weather in Argentina and Brazil continues to look generally favorable, which is expected to provide a lot of export competition down the road. Ethanol production might be impacted by narrowing margins or a change in U.S. governmental policy, which could also hit exports, while livestock feed usage could see some impact from tighter ready numbers. Still, for now, that overall solid demand will continue to be the backbone for corn. Russia’s State Statistics Service says corn stocks on December 1^st were 3.8 million tons, compared to 4 million a year ago.

The wheat complex was mixed. Global demand is strong, reflected in Saudi Arabia buying 804,000 tons of optional wheat recently, considerably larger than the original tender. While the U.S. is expected to fill little or none of that purchase, a tighter global supply is viewed as a positive. U.S. exports remain ahead of last marketing year even with hefty competition from Russia, Ukraine, and now, Argentina, which has the lowest price on the global market. U.S. export inspections were above both the week before and a year ago, led by Mexico and Japan. Recent precipitation in U.S. winter wheat growing areas is beneficial. Russia’s State Statistics Service says wheat stocks on December 1^st were 18.7 million tons, a drop of 25% on the year. Russia also announced it was suspending exports to Syria following the end of the al-Assad regime, a close regional ally of Moscow.