Market News

Corn market strengthens slightly ahead of USDA report

Soybeans were mixed, with nearby contracts down and deferred months up. The trade is waiting for more confirmation of Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans. U.S. soybean prices are at a premium to Brazil, and China usually buys the cheaper beans. Beans remain cautiously optimistic about that pledged demand over the next three years by Beijing but would probably like to get more details. Soybeans are watching the very tail end of the 2025 U.S. harvest, along with planting and development weather in South America. Ag commodities in general were also starting to get ready for the USDA report and CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil, both of which are out Friday. Soybean meal futures were lower and soybean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads.

Corn was modestly higher on short covering and technical buying. Export demand has been solid during the first quarter of the 2025/26 marketing year, and corn for ethanol use is also supportive. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production, supply, and export numbers are out Wednesday. Last week’s update, covering the week ending October 31^st, showed record large average daily production. Late U.S. harvest weather and South American conditions are mostly favorable. Safras e Mercado now has Brazil’s 2025/26 corn crop at 143.6 million tons, 1.1 million more than the previous guess. Brazil’s government has reportedly approved several DDG and sorghum plants to export to China. Thailand has confirmed plans to increase imports of U.S. corn, including 1 million tons tariff-free between February and June of 2026, while still purchasing domestically produced corn to support prices.

The wheat complex was mixed, mostly firm. Traders took the path of least resistance, monitoring U.S. winter wheat development weather and keeping an eye on the early harvest activity in Argentina and Australia. Wheat is also monitoring planting and development conditions in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. Stateside, analysts think winter wheat planting is nearly complete and the crop is approaching dormancy in many key growing areas. Ag is waiting to see how the USDA approaches the backlogs of data caused by the partial shutdown of the federal government, which could end as soon as Wednesday. Egypt says it bought 500,000 tons of wheat over the past few weeks, 200,000 tons of that from Russia, with additional supplies from Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine. SovEcon says 2026 wheat production could be 83.8 million tons, compared to the most recent 2025 projection of 87.8 million, largely on expectations for a dip in planted area.