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Corn sees post-WASDE gain, with soybeans, wheat down

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling. The lone change for carryout projections was that new crop U.S. ending stocks were up on the month following a reduction in the old crop crush. That pushed 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks to 350 million bushels and 2024/25 to 455 million, compared to the 264 million at the end of 2022/23. The USDA’s crop guess for Brazil was slightly lower, down 1 million tons to 153 million tons, with no change for Argentina at 50 million tons. There were also no changes to soybean exports for Argentina, Brazil, or Paraguay, or imports for China, with soybean product numbers also steady with May. The USDA’s next round of supply and demand estimates is out July 12th. China did buy 106,000 tons of 2023/24 U.S. soybeans Wednesday, bringing the two-day total to 210,000 tons. That’s Beijing’s third announced old crop purchase this month, due at least in part to higher basis levels in Brazil and a tax change by the government, but China has yet to buy any new crop U.S. beans. Soybean meal was steady to weak on spread trade and profit taking, while bean oil was up on technical buying.

Corn was higher on short covering and technical buying. There were no changes for either old or new crop U.S. ending stocks or South American production. Exports for South America and Ukraine were unchanged, while Russia was up slightly on the month. There was some expectation the USDA might change yield this month, but that will likely wait for July, with quarterly grain stocks and planted area totals out June 28th. General sentiment is that corn will lose some acres from the March guess, the question is how many acres. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production averaged 1.023 million barrels a day, down 49,000 on the week, but up 5,000 on the year, while stocks hit a three-week high at 23.222 million barrels, an increase of 170,000 from the previous week and 996,000 from a year ago.

The wheat complex was lower on profit taking and technical selling. The U.S. winter wheat production estimate was up 1% from May and 4% from 2023 at 1.295 billion bushels thanks to improved yields and decreased abandonment, which offset an 8-million-bushel dip in ending stocks to 758 million bushels, on expectations for better export demand. The export change is probably due to the anticipated crop loss in Russia and Ukraine. That compares to 688 million bushels in 2023/24 and 570 million bushels for 2022/23. There were no adjustments for Black Sea wheat production, or for Australia, Canada, or the European Union. USDA did raise export guesses for Argentina, Canada, the E.U., and Russia, while lowering sales outlooks for Australia and Ukraine. The UDSA’s weekly U.S. sales numbers are out Thursday morning. Now, the trade will be watching yield results from the U.S. winter wheat harvest and spring wheat development conditions.

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