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Corn up, soybeans and wheat mixed ahead of WASDE report

Soybeans were mixed, mostly higher. Beans were getting ready for Friday’s supply, demand, and production report. Analysts generally expect a slightly lower yield guess in the first field-based survey of the season, along with tighter new crop U.S. ending stocks. Recent rainfall and cooler temperatures have aided crop prospects, but initial yield projections were probably a little optimistic and the weather prior to the pattern shift definitely trimmed some potential. Soybean meal was up on demand expectations, while bean oil was mixed, consolidating. CONAB left its soybean estimate for Brazil unchanged at 154.603 million tons, up 23.1% from last year, while expecting exports to be 95.64 million tons, both new high-water marks for Brazil. CONAB is also projecting record large soybean meal and oil exports as Brazil fills some of the vacuum left by the smaller crop in Argentina, which is usually the world’s largest exporter of soybean products. The Rosario Grain Exchange sees Argentina’s next crop at 48 million tons, expecting better weather. Old crop U.S. soybean export sales last week were up sharply, mainly to unknown destinations and Germany, with minimal interest from China. New crop sales were down sharply, but still above a million tons, with China and unknown destinations taking the top slots.

Corn was modestly higher on short covering and technical buying. Analysts see the USDA cutting the average yield guess and lowering new crop stocks slightly. The recent change in weather has helped, but some of the potential was lost earlier in the season and parts of the Midwest remain in near-drought or drought conditions. The trade will also be watching the new crop numbers for South America closely. CONAB raised its second crop estimate for Brazil to more than 100 million tons, projecting exports at 50 million tons, both of which would be record large. Total corn production for Brazil is pegged at 129.962 million tons, a potential increase of 14.9% on the year. Old crop U.S. corn export sales were above the prior week, but lower than average, primarily to Colombia, Saudi Arabia, and Mexico, but with a cancelation by unknown destinations. New crop sales were higher than a week ago with Mexico and unknown destinations leading the way. The Rosario Grain Exchange estimates the new crop for Argentina at 56 million tons, which would be above a year ago, aided by better weather.

The wheat complex was mixed. Analysts expect modestly higher U.S. and world wheat ending stocks Friday and while minimal changes are expected for the domestic production estimates, there could be some adjustments to the global side of the ledger. Dry weather is an issue in parts of Argentina, Australia, and Canada, while there could be a higher guess for Russia. The report is out Friday at Noon Eastern/11 Central. In the Black Sea region, Ukraine says it has opened a “humanitarian corridor” to allow civilian vessels to leave ports, a test of Moscow’s blockade, which has severely curtailed Ukraine’s non-overland and Danube River exports. For now, Russia continues to be in control of the global wheat market. Weekly U.S. sales were a marketing year high, encouraging, even if it is still early in the 2023/24 marketing year. Last week’s big buyers were the Philippines and Japan.

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