Market News

Corn up with lower new crop U.S. ending stocks

Soybeans were mostly lower on spread trade and profit taking, ending the week with big losses in the most active months. The USDA’s new crop U.S. ending stocks projection was down on the month, with a slightly lower crop guess for Argentina and no change for Brazil, leaving that estimate well above the most recent guess from CONAB. The USDA did raise old crop imports by China to 108 million tons, while leaving new crop at 109 million tons. Also, on the 2023/24 world side of the ledger, export estimates were up for Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay, with no adjustments yet for 2024/25. Near-term U.S. development conditions look mostly favorable. Soybean meal and oil were lower on profit taking, even with the positive crush margins.

Corn was higher on short covering and technical buying, but not enough to escape a lower weekly finish. New crop U.S. ending stocks were below June, due to higher exports and feed use, canceling out a higher production guess, but it’s still above 2 billlion bushels. The USDA did lower Argentina’s crop guess while leaving Brazil unchanged and larger than the most recent guess from CONAB. USDA also lowered 2023/24 exports for Argentina but increased exports for Ukraine. Stateside, the production numbers were based on the USDA’s planted area totals and estimated harvested area, using a trendline yield. The first official production projection of the season is out with the next round of supply and demand estimates and the first look at prevent plant on August 12^th. Corn is also watching U.S. development conditions, with a short-term hot pattern expected in parts of the Corn Belt, possibly causing some stress during pollination. China is reportedly interested in corn from Brazil for late summer/early fall delivery.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling, adding to what would have already been a week-to-week decline. U.S. ending stocks were up on the month, mostly due to higher U.S. production guesses for both winter and spring wheat, including a record projected average yield for the spring crop. The department did raise its 2024/25 U.S. wheat export projection. New crop world production and ending stocks were higher. That larger global new crop production estimate included increases for Argentina and Canada against a cut for the European Union, with no changes yet for either Russia or Ukraine, despite weather issues faced throughout the growing season and the ongoing war. The USDA also upped the export guess for Canada slightly, while cutting the expectation for the E.U. and leaving Black Sea exports unchanged.