Market News

Corn weak Friday, still up modestly on the week

Soybeans were modestly lower on fund and technical selling, compounding what would have already been a week-to-week decline. Harvest is ongoing in South America, putting a lot of soybeans and eventually soybean products onto the market. The USDA’s updated supply, demand, and production numbers, and CONAB’s new estimates for Brazil are both out April 10^th. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange did cut its outlook for Argentina 1 million tons to 48.6 million tons because of dry weather in some areas. Brazil’s basis levels remain relatively high, which could drive some business to the U.S. How much of that would be with China remains to be seen, at least partially because of the ongoing tariff tensions between the U.S., Beijing, Canada, the European Union, and Mexico. China’s 100% tariff on Canadian canola meal and oil is in effect as of this week. Soybean meal was higher and bean oil was lower on the adjustment of product spreads.

Corn was modestly lower on fund and technical selling, trimming the week’s gains. Development weather looks mostly favorable for second crop corn in Brazil, but there are some areas of concern, while the harvest in Argentina is moving forward at around 14% complete. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says nearly the entire crop has reached the pollination phase. The trade is also monitoring U.S. weather and getting ready for planting season. The USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks numbers are both out Monday, March 31^st. As with most major commodities, corn is waiting to see what happens with tariffs against and from some key U.S. trading partners.

The wheat complex was mostly modestly higher, with the most active months managing a firm weekly finish. Weather concerns in the U.S., Black Sea region, and Eastern Europe provided some limited support, but that was at least partially capped by the higher move in the dollar during the session. Stateside, winter wheat condition ratings are mixed, with the USDA’s weekly crop progress and condition numbers resuming the first Monday in April. There are also some concerns about conditions in parts of the northern U.S. Plains and Canada ahead of spring wheat planting. Additionally, the trade is waiting to see what happens in negotiations about Russia’s war on Ukraine. The much-discussed ceasefire continues to be uncertain, with very little clear indication from Moscow about accepting the current reported terms.