Market News

Corn, wheat able to sustain gains, soybeans close mixed

Soybeans were mixed, with front months up and deferred contracts down. Soybeans were up early but couldn’t follow through with soybean oil also drifting after a higher start. The trade continues to monitor U.S. development conditions ahead of August, considered to be the key month for beans. Export demand remains slow with China largely relying on Brazil, for now. The USDA’s weekly sales numbers are out Thursday morning and will include last week’s purchase of new crop U.S. beans by China, their first significant announced buy for 2024/25, which starts September 1^st. August soybeans did trade briefly above above $11 before the dip. Soybean meal was supported by commercial buying, while soybean oil was down on profit taking and a lack of follow through buying. Domestic crush margins remain supportive.

Corn was modestly higher on commercial and technical buying. Corn is monitoring development conditions, with a cooler near-term pattern on tap for most of the region. Western growing areas could turn drier, potentially impacting yield, while some southeastern portions of the growing area could see a wetter pattern. The trade’s also keeping an eye on clean-up after this week’s storms. The USDA’s updated supply, demand, and production numbers are set for August 12^th. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production last week averaged 1.106 million barrels a day, tied for the third highest on record, and an increase of 52,000 on the week and 36,000 on the year. Stocks were a six-week low at 23.16 million barrels, 443,000 less than the previous week and 6,000 below a year ago. Taiwan bought 65,000 tons of corn ahead of Wednesday’s session, reportedly from the U.S. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says corn exports since the start of the 2024/25 marketing year July 1^st are 1 million tons, with the overall pace ahead of 2023/24. ANEC sees Brazil’s July corn exports at 4.51 million tons, compared to the last guess of 4.1 million. Brazil’s Secretariat of Foreign Trade says January to June 2024 corn exports were 8.349 million tons, down 28% from the same time frame in 2023. CONAB says almost 75% of Brazil’s second crop has been harvested.

The wheat complex was higher on commercial and technical buying, along with the lower trade in the dollar during the session. Some types of U.S. wheat are more competitive on the export market, which could spark new demand and the complex remains oversold. Russia continues to get a lot of the global business, including 720,000 tons of this week’s purchase by Egypt, with the remaining 50,000 tons supplied by Bulgaria. Russia’s Ag Ministry raised its export tariff on wheat, coming on the heels of a recent modest rise in domestic prices. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says that just over two weeks into the new marketing year, wheat exports are 732,000 tons. The U.S. winter wheat harvest is ongoing, with some states either wrapped up or very close to it, and spring wheat is in good shape overall, but with the potential for a drier pattern over the next week. Globally, wheat is monitoring drought conditions in the Black Sea region, also impacting corn, and harvest activity in Europe, along with winter wheat planting weather for Argentina and Brazil.