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Corn, wheat down, soybeans mixed ahead of WASDE

Soybeans were mixed on bull spreading. CONAB raised its outlook for Brazil’s crop again, now projected at 154.811 million tons, which would be up 23.3% from last year. Harvest is essentially over. CONAB has Brazil’s exports this marketing year at a record 95 million tons, with big soybean product sales as well due to the much smaller crop in Argentina. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its guess for Argentina to 21.5 million tons with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange say it doesn’t expect any appreciable rain accumulation until September, extending the drought. 54% of Argentina’s crop is harvest, much lower than average. Still, the losses in Argentina seem to be factored in. The weekly U.S. export sales numbers were bearish at just over 2 million bushels of old crop, mainly to Indonesia and the Netherlands, with a big cancellation by unknown destinations, and fewer than 2 million bushels of new crop, primarily to Portugal and Mexico. The overall pace is on track to meet USDA projections for the marketing year, but Brazil’s control of the market is evident. Thursday, the USDA did announce the sale of 132,000 tons of new crop U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations, the first reported sale of U.S. beans since March 9th. Planting weather generally looks favorable over the next few days in most of the region. Friday, the USDA is expected to raise old crop U.S. ending stocks slightly and project bigger new crop ending stocks. Soybean meal was higher and bean oil was lower on the adjustment of product spreads.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. CONAB increased its already record large guesses for Brazil’s second crop and total production, now projected at 96.138 million and 125.536 million tons, respectively, both considerably larger than last year thanks to higher acreage and better yields. That’s probably been a factor in the recent old crop U.S. corn export sales cancellations with Brazil’s second crop harvest getting underway this summer. CONAB says about 75% of the crop is at the tasseling and ear filling stage, so weather could lower, or boost, those projections. CONAB expects Brazil to export 48 million tons of corn this marketing year. Weekly old crop U.S. sales were a little bit better than average, Japan and Mexico led the way, but dragged down by a cancellation from unknown destinations. New crop sales were routine, all to Mexico. The USDA supply and demand report Friday is expected to show higher old crop stocks and big new crop stocks. The report is out at Noon Eastern/11 Central.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. Old crop U.S. wheat sales were a marketing year low at a scant 1 million bushels, with about three weeks remaining in the current marketing year. The “big” buyers were unknow and Mexico, with a handful of net cancellations. The new crop sales were better at just over 12 million bushels, mostly to the Philippines, Mexico, and unknown. Russia continues to hold a significant portion of the export market and the trade’s waiting to see what happens with the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Moscow wants some big concessions, even as it continues to wage war on Ukraine. Rain is too late to help in the southern Plains and will further delay spring wheat planting in the northern Plains. Meanwhile, soft red winter conditions are generally good, but some areas are starting to get excessively wet. The trade also has an eye on dry weather potentially impacting planting in Argentina and Canada. For now, the USDA’s attaché in Canada is estimating an increase in area and a crop of 35.845 million tons, compared to 33.824 million a year ago, with exports expected to hold at 26 million tons. Analysts anticipated bigger old and new crop U.S. ending stocks in Friday’s WASDE report.

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