Market News

Corn, wheat find some support, soybeans mostly firm

Soybeans were mixed, mostly firm, on spread trade and technical buying. New crop export sales were solid at 50.4 million bushels, but China remains absent due to tariff tensions. Unknown destinations and Mexico were the big weekly buyers. China has normally purchased new crop U.S. soybeans by now and the prospects of an immediate deal between the U.S. and China including ag seem fairly dim. Old crop soybean export sales were a net reduction. While development weather looks mostly non-threatening, some areas do need rain. That precipitation might not materialize until early next week. Soybean meal and oil futures were lower on fund selling ahead of the first notice day for September grain and oilseed contracts. Statistics Canada estimates canola production at 19.937 million tons, up 3.6% on the year thanks to improved yields, with soybeans at 7.016 million tons, 7.3% lower than last year.

Corn was higher on short covering and technical buying. New crop corn sales were down on the week, but still 82.3 million bushels, led by Mexico and unknown destinations. Old crop corn export sales were a net reduction for the third week in a row, not all that uncommon as a marketing year draws to a close. The 2025/26 marketing year for corn, and soybeans, starts September 1^st. U.S. harvest activity is moving north as planting starts in parts of South America. Brazil’s second harvest should be very close to wrapped up, with CONAB’s updated projections for Brazil set for September 11^th and the USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers out September 12^th. Statistics Canada has 2025 corn production at 15.553 million tons, an increase of 1.4% from a year ago, with larger harvested area mostly canceling out a lower yield.

The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying. Minneapolis had support from a lower-than-expected spring wheat production estimate for Canada due to yield issues. Statistics Canada has the spring wheat crop at 25.992 million tons, 2% lower than 2024, with all wheat production at 35.548 million tons, a decline of 1.1%. Chicago and Kansas City are watching rain chances ahead of winter wheat planting. That’s recently favored the hard red winter over soft red winter, but parts of the SRW growing region are expected to see at least some precipitation by early next week. U.S. export sales were up on the week, but lower than average, primarily to Vietnam and Nigeria, with a notable cancelation by unknown destinations. Global supplies are rising, and prices are falling as harvest draws to a conclusion in the U.S., Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. France’s AgriMer says 69% of their soft wheat crop has protein content above 11%, below the five-year average. Wheat is also monitoring development conditions in Argentina and Australia.