Market News

Corn, wheat see gains after USDA numbers

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling. Quarterly stocks were a little bit below expectations, but still up sharply on the year. That was as slow export demand largely canceled out strong domestic crush demand. The trade is also watching the U.S. harvest and South American planting. Stateside, the USDA says 26% of the crop is harvested, compared to the five-year average of 18%, with the national crop rating holding at 64% good to excellent, and 73% dropping leaves. The USDA’s updated supply, demand, and production numbers are out October 11^th, with CONAB’s new outlook for Brazil set for the 15^th. Soybean export inspections were up on the week, down on the year, mainly to China and Germany. China bought 116,000 tons of 2024/25 U.S. soybeans ahead of the open, a little disappointing given some of the recent rumors about greater demand ahead of the Golden Week holiday. Safras e Mercado says 1.9% of Brazil’s soybean crop has been planted, compared to 3.8% a year ago. Soybean meal was mostly lower on spread trade and profit taking, while bean oil was up the higher move in beans.

Corn was higher on fund and technical buying. Quarterly stocks fell well below the average pre-report estimate, but were still sharply higher on the year, even with better demand and a slight downward revision to the 2023 crop. That revision was largely due to an adjustment in planted area. The USDA was expected to report significant harvest delays in some areas in the weekly crop numbers ahead of a drier stretch of weather in much of the region. As of Sunday, 21% of the U.S. crop is harvested, compared to 18% on average, while 64% of the crop is called good to excellent, 1% lower, with 96% of corn dented and 75% mature. Corn export inspections were below the previous week, but up sharply from a year ago, primarily to Mexico and Japan. Just under a month into the marketing year, the pace is ahead of what’s needed to meet USDA projections. The European Commission cuts its 2024/25 corn production guess for the European Union to 60.1 million tons.

The wheat complex was higher on fund and technical buying. Quarterly wheat stocks and 2024 all wheat production were both larger than what analysts were expecting and up from 2023. Near-term forecasts for the southwestern U.S. Plains and Black Sea region portions of Russia and Ukraine remain dry. The trade is also monitoring conditions in Argentina ahead of widespread harvest and development weather in Australia. For U.S. winter wheat, 39% is planted and 14% has emerged, both 1% ahead of their respective normal paces. The spring wheat harvest is officially wrapped up for the year. U.S. wheat export inspections were lower than the prior week, but higher than last year, with the Philippines and South Korea topping the list. Egypt’s government says it has enough wheat on hand for more than five months. The European Commission sees the E.U.’s 2024/25 wheat crop at 114.6 million tons, 1.5 million less than the August guess.