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Corn, wheat see oversold bounces

Soybeans were mixed, mostly modestly higher. Beans consolidated after the recent run to multi-month lows sparked by long liquidation and slow export demand. Soybeans essentially followed the lead of bean meal, which was mostly modestly higher on bull spreading, while bean oil was up on oversold signals, the higher crude oil, and general renewable fuels demand expectations. Brazil remains in control of the global market due to a price advantage, even with lower production estimates. Three, or more, vessels bound for the U.S. southeast have reportedly loaded beans at two ports in Brazil, exemplifying just how big of an advantage Brazil has at this time. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production estimates is out March 8th, while CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil is set for March 12th. The USDA says soybean export inspections were down on the week, but up on the year, mainly to China and Germany.

Corn was modestly higher on short covering and technical buying, pulling March back above $4. Corn had an up and down day, finally finding at least a little buying interest after the recent run of multiple sessions with contract lows. Weather looks generally favorable in most of South America, with second crop planting in Brazil moving forward. Decent weekend rainfall was reported in parts of Argentina and Brazil with more expected later this week. The trade also has an eye on U.S. conditions ahead of widespread planting. The USDA says corn export inspections were above last week and last year, primarily to Mexico and Japan. Nearing the halfway point for 2023/24, U.S. corn export inspections remain ahead of both the pace needed for this marketing year and 2022/23.

The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying, along with the lower dollar during the session. Wheat is oversold, but with any sustained upside will probably be limited by slow export demand. U.S. wheat export inspections were larger than the previous week, but smaller than a year ago, with Japan and Mexico topping the list. Russia, and to a lesser extent, Ukraine, continue to dominate the global wheat market due to favorable pricing. Forecasts for midweek this week have precipitation, including snow, in some hard and soft red winter growing areas as a cold front pushes in from Canada. The USDA’s next to last monthly state crop weather stories are out Tuesday, with weekly national and state crop progress and condition reports resuming in early April.

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