Market News

Down day for corn, soybeans on harvest pressure

Soybeans were modestly lower on fund and technical selling, but still managed a modestly higher weekly finish. The trade was watching harvest activity ahead of widespread rain delays in parts of the region. Early yield results have been mixed, maybe a little disappointing in eastern growing areas due to the recent dry weather. China bought 121,000 tons of new crop U.S. soybeans. Export demand for new crop U.S. beans has improved due to favorable prices, but China is also still buying from Brazil. Soybeans are also monitoring conditions ahead of widespread planting in South America. Soybean meal was higher and bean oil was lower, adjusting product spreads. Domestic crush margins remain bullish.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling, compounding the week-to-week losses. Corn is monitoring U.S. harvest activity and yield results, while waiting to see rain totals and coverage. That rain will delay harvest activity in some areas and could lead to some quality concerns, but the trade seems to have dialed in a very large if not record yield in 2024. The USDA’s next round of production estimates is out October 11^th, along with the monthly supply and demand report. The Buenos Aires Grian Exchange says 7% of Argentina’s corn crop is planted, in-line with the average pace. There is a chance for improved rain in the long-term forecast for parts of Argentina and Brazil by the end of the month. Argentina currently has the lowest global price for corn, but the U.S. remains competitive, especially with Ukraine expected to reduce sales due to tighter domestic supplies and a smaller crop.

The wheat complex was mixed, but the most active contracts at the three U.S. pits saw big weekly losses. Wheat was able to find some buying interest, but the trade is wary about pushing prices above demand, pulling most months below the session highs and some contracts into negative territory not long after the open. That price impact on demand was reflected in the most recent USDA weekly export sales report and there’s still plenty of competition from Russia. Welcome rainfall is in the forecast for many U.S. winter wheat growing areas and the trade’s also watching the tail end of the spring wheat harvest. The USDA’s Small Grains Summary is out on the 30^th, in addition to the Quarterly Grain Stocks report. Conditions remain dry in parts of the Black Sea region, while portions of western Europe are expected to see widespread rainfall. There are some reports of abandonment in Argentina due to dry weather and pest issues.