Market News

Down day for corn, wheat

Soybeans were mixed, mostly firm. Beans consolidated, drifting slightly after spending most of the session in solidly positive territory, watching development weather, which looks mostly favorable. Parts of the region have seen rain this week and could see more ahead of what’s expected to be a warmer, drier pattern in some areas. Still, any yield loss would be highly dependent on duration and severity, and the story of this growing season seems to be weather issues in some areas getting canceled out by nearly ideal conditions in other areas. If there’s a bright spot to the recent move to new lows, it’s the improvements in export demand, with the U.S. currently competitive for fall/winter delivery. New crop export sales were solid at 49.4 million bushels with China and unknown destinations leading the pack. Old crop sales were routine at 8.1 million bushels, primarily to the Netherlands and Germany, with a small cancelation by China. Brazil continues to move a lot of soybeans due to a near-term price advantage. Soybean meal was higher and bean oil was lower on the adjustment of product spreads. The NOPA says member firms crushed 182.9 million bushels of soybeans during July, close to pre-report expectations and up on the month and the year thanks to the solid domestic margins. Soybean oil stocks were tighter than anticipated, even with oil and meal production up from June.

Corn was lower on speculative and technical selling. Corn is watching the mostly favorable late development weather in much of the region. The crop is essentially made at this point, but any significant, sustained shift in conditions would likely impact yields to an extent. The big question continues to be harvested area. The USDA did lower their projection in the latest round of supply and demand estimates, but that number could be trimmed further. The USDA’s updated supply, demand, and production numbers are out September 12^th. Old crop export sales were a marketing year low at 4.7 million bushels, with Colombia and Portugal topping the list, against a cancelation by unknown destinations, but new crop was up on the week at 31.5 million bushels, mainly to unknown destinations and Mexico. The Rosario Board of Trade is projecting a 21% decline in planted area for Argentina in the 2024/25 growing season due to pest, disease, and weather issues. Rosario has Argentina’s 2023/24 crop at 49 million tons, compared to the previous guess of 47.5 million.

The wheat complex was lower on speculative and technical selling. Contracts were up at the open, but unable to follow through, with pressure from a higher move in the dollar during the session. Domestically, the trade’s monitoring late U.S. winter wheat harvest activity and the early spring wheat harvest pace. Export sales were above a week ago, but lower than average at 12.5 million bushels. The leading purchasers for the week were Mexico and Yemen, with cancelations by unknown destinations and China. 2025/26 U.S. wheat sales had a net reduction of 2.5 million bushels with a sale to South Korea more than offset by cancelations from the Philippines and Thailand. The slightly improved demand for 2024/25 U.S. wheat when compared to 2023/24 is due to world crop weather issues impacting production and quality. That includes major exports like France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine, and could include Argentina, but it’s still early in the Southern Hemisphere’s growing season. The USDA’s attaché in Australia says early conditions are mixed, mostly favorable in the east, but with low soil moisture in western and southern area, with production estimated at 29 million tons, compared to 26 million in 2023/24. 2024/25 exports for Australia are seen at 21 million tons, compared to 20 million in the previous marketing year.