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Down day for soybeans, corn, wheat
Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling. Beans are monitoring the generally favorable crop weather in South America, which has pushed planting forward. CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil’s crop is scheduled for Thursday, November 14th. Stateside, as of Sunday, 96% of U.S. soybeans are harvested, compared to the five-year average of 91%. The delayed export inspections numbers were neutral, down on the week, up on the year, primarily to China and Egypt. There was also spillover from bean oil and global vegetable oils on demand concerns. Soybean meal was down on the bearish tone in the soy complex and the fundamental implications of big U.S. and South American crops. China postponed a planned reserve auction of nearly 2 million tons of soybeans because of technical problems.
Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. Corn is watching planting and development conditions in Argentina and Brazil, along with late U.S. harvest activity. The USDA says 95% of U.S. corn is harvested, compared to 84% on average. Mexico bought 110,500 tons of 2024/25 U.S. corn ahead of the open. Export inspections were four-week lows, slightly below the week before, but slightly above last year, mainly to Mexico and Colombia. U.S. corn prices remain very competitive on the export market following the recent decline in price, but the pace of shipments has slowed down at least somewhat. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production, supply, and export numbers are out Thursday.
The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling, in addition to the higher trade in the dollar during the session. There’s more rain in the forecast for parts of the Plains, while parts of the eastern Midwest remain very dry. That disparity in precipitation is leading to a divergence in conditions for hard and soft red winter wheat. According to the USDA, 44% of the crop is in good to excellent condition, up 3% on the week, with 91% of winter wheat planted and 76% emerged, both slower than normal. Harvest is ongoing in Argentina and Australia’s crop could be larger than expected. The trade is also keeping an eye on planting and development conditions in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. France’s Ag Ministry estimates 2024 soft wheat production at 25.56 million tons, compared to the prior guess of 25.43 million. U.S. export inspections were above a week ago and a year ago, with South Korea and the Philippines leading the pack. Global demand for U.S. wheat continues to hold up relatively well despite a significant premium against some competing sellers. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers is out December 10th.
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