Market News

Downward drift continues for soybeans, corn, wheat

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling. The U.S. harvest should wrap up this week and South American planting has advanced thanks to recent rain. Parts of the soybean growing areas of that continent could see a drier near-term pattern, but overall, conditions continue to look favorable after the recent improvement in precipitation. CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil’s crops is out Thursday, with most analysts expecting an increase in the production and yield estimates. The trade is still talking a wait and see attitude towards the potential renewal of a trade war with China under the second Trump administration. Soybean meal and oil continued to follow beans lower. Crush margins remain positive but have narrowed and products are expected increased export competition from South America because of larger crops. Bean oil’s also contending with concerns about biofuels demand under the incoming EPA head.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. The U.S. harvest is expected to end this week, with corn also watching development weather in South America. Ahead of the open, Mexico bought 401,357 tons of U.S. corn and unknown destinations purchased 290,820 tons, both for delivery this marketing year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production, supply, and export numbers are out Thursday, delayed a day by Veterans Day. Ethanol demand is a positive, but there are some emerging questions about sustained production because the newly appointed EPA head has been an opponent of biofuels. CONAB is expected to raise planted area, yield, and production estimates Thursday.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling, along with the higher trade in the dollar during the session. The USDA’s winter wheat good to excellent rating was up on the week after the recent rain in the Midwest and Plains, with part of the crop also moving out of poor to very poor and into fair. Planting and emergence remain just behind average, but that doesn’t seem to be a major concern. The trade’s also keeping an eye on weather in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, along with harvest activity in Argentina and Australia. SovEcon projects Ukraine’s 2025 wheat crop at 21.1 million tons, which would be lower than average. The big overhanging question marks in the Black Sea region continue to be potential escalation in the war between Russia and Ukraine, or a negotiated end to the war that greatly favors Russia over Ukraine.