Market News

Export sales support corn

Soybeans were mostly higher on spread trade and short covering, recovering from the early session losses. Harvest is being delayed in parts of the region, but most forecasts have a return to drier conditions soon. The trade continues to watch yield reports ahead of the USDA’s next set of production projections on the 12^th. Export sales were up on the week, mainly to China and Spain, but the overall pace continues to reflect Brazil’s control of the export market. Brazil’s grain group ANEC projects October soybean exports at 6.71 million tons, which would be nearly double the year ago total. That control might be temporary, with some reports of no soybean offers by Brazil after November. Planting conditions in Brazil are mixed, including flooding in the south, while Argentina remains dry. Soybean meal was higher and soybean oil was lower on the adjustment of product spreads.

Corn was higher on short covering and technical buying, along with the gains in wheat. Corn is watching harvest activity, expecting generally good progress after this wet system moves through the Midwest. Anecdotal yields have been mixed, but with better than anticipated results in some areas. Combined old and new crop corn export sales topped 2.4 million tons, with Mexico taking the top slot for both 2023/24 and 2024/25. Colombia took second place for 2023/24 sales. August ethanol exports were 102.3 million gallons, a decline of 10% from July, led by Canada for the 29^th month in a row, followed by the United Kingdom, Colombia, the European Union, and Peru. That’s the eighth month in a row with ethanol exports above 100 million gallons. DDGS sales of 947,326 tons were 5% lower than a month ago, with Mexico, Vietnam, and Indonesia the primary purchasers. Brazilian grain group ANEC sees October corn exports at 8.9 million tons, which would be quite a bit larger than last year. There’s been talk, but no confirmation, of China buying corn from Ukraine.

The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying, in addition to the lower trade in the dollar. Russia continues to attack Ukraine’s port infrastructure but will likely continue to dominate exports unless there’s a major price change or sanctions. Grain is still moving out of Ukraine, just at a slower pace since the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Either way, there’s been no significant improvement in global demand for U.S. wheat, just a lot of chatter. U.S. wheat sales were below last week and under the four-week average, but shipments were solid. The big buyers were the Philippines and Taiwan, with a significant cancelation by unknown destinations. Dry weather is impacting production in Argentina and Australia. Still, reaction to those weather concerns is muted by the relatively low volume of exports from the Southern Hemisphere.