Market News

Good gains for soybeans, corn, wheat

Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying. Recent hot, dry weather in some areas has likely had an impact on yield potential. The USDA and a recent major private crop tour are both projecting record U.S. yields this year, but at a state level, there’s expected to be some variance with the next USDA estimate out September 12^th. Cooler temperatures are in the forecast for parts of the region, but many areas could remain dry, with only scattered rain expected. Old crop exports were a net reduction due to several cancelations, but new crop sales were strong at 96.1 million bushels, mainly to China and unknown destinations. Still, the new crop pace remains slower than average, and those purchases could be canceled at any time, especially given the reliance of China on soybeans from South America. Soybean meal was mostly firm, September was down on position squaring ahead of the first notice day Friday, the other months were up on the bullish tone in the complex. Soybean oil was supported by higher moves in palm and crude oils.

Corn was higher on commercial and technical buying. Corn is monitoring late development weather and early harvest results in the southern Corn Belt. Like soybeans, while the USDA and a recent major private crop tour see record U.S. yields, there will probably some variance once harvest activity moves into prime U.S. production areas in September. New crop corn export sales were bullish at 58.8 million bushels with U.S. corn the most competitively priced on the market. Mexico and unknown destinations topped that list. Old crop sales were a marketing year low for the second consecutive week, not all that uncommon ahead of the start of a new marketing year, with Spain and Mexico leading the way. Feed and fuel demand are additional positives for corn, even with the USDA projecting large new crop ending stocks. The 2024/25 marketing year for corn, and soybeans, starts September 1^st. The trade is also keeping an eye planting conditions in South America.

The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying. U.S. spring wheat yields are solid, but there are quality concerns in parts of the northern U.S. Plains and Canada following a mix of heavy rainfall and high heat during development and harvest. Weather has also had an impact on quality and yields in France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine, and there could be issues with production in Argentina and Brazil. For Australia, rainfall forecasts are mixed, with most of the nation expected to see warmer temperatures over the next few months following the hottest August on record. Hot, dry weather is an issue ahead of widespread winter wheat planting in parts of the Plains and Midwest, but there is rain in the forecast for portions of the southwestern Plains. Winter wheat planting conditions in the Midwest will bear closing scrutiny once the corn and soybean harvests wrap up. Export sales were larger than average at 19.6 million bushels, headlines by the Philippines and South Korea.