Market News

Grains see profit taking as traders watch China demand and South American weather

Soybeans were lower on profit taking and technical selling. The trade’s waiting for more news on export business with China, while watching weather in South America. On the China front, there were no new export sales announced Monday and there’s still no date on when the trade deal framework will get signed. As for South America, near-term conditions generally look favorable. Most reports out of Brazil have almost 90% of that crop planted. Export inspections were up on the week, down on the year, primarily to Italy and Egypt. The 2025/26 pace continues to be considerably slower than 2024/25. China reportedly turned an unspecified amount of beans from Brazil away due contamination. Soybean meal futures were lower and soybean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads.

Corn was lower on profit taking and technical selling. Corn is monitoring the generally favorable planting and development conditions in Argentina and Brazil. Conditions are expected to stay favorable in most of South America over the near-term, but any changes in weather will be watched closely, as December is considered a key month for crops in the Southern Hemisphere. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 82% of Argentina’s crop is in good to excellent condition. Overall demand continues to be solid. Export inspections were lower than last week, but larger than last year, with Japan and Mexico leading the way. At the start of the second quarter of the marketing year, corn inspections are well ahead of a year ago. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says corn exports since the start of their marketing year July 1^st are 3.47 million tons, a drop of 50% from this time last year.

The wheat complex was lower on profit taking and technical selling. Halfway through the marketing year, global demand is good, even with competitive prices from other exporters and rising global supplies. Export inspections were below the previous week, but above this time last year, mainly to Vietnam and Mexico. December 1^st officially marks the halfway point for the wheat marketing year and the 2025/26 pace remains faster than 2024/25. Wheat’s also watching harvest activity in Argentina and Australia, along with development weather in the U.S., Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. Australia’s Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences now has wheat production at 35.6 million tons, the third largest on record. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says that since the beginning of their marketing year July 1^st, wheat exports are 7.3 million tons, 17% behind the prior year’s pace.