Market News

Harvest pressure pulls soybeans, corn lower

Soybeans were fractionally lower on fund and technical selling. It was an up and down day, as early yield results have been mixed, generally below expectations in the east, with probable harvest delays in some areas. Those yields in the east were dinged by a mostly dry finish for the crop as parts of the Midwest have not had significant rainfall in weeks. New crop export sales were up on the week, at 64.2 million bushels with more than half of that to China and Mexico in second place. There’s been talk of more demand from China, but no USDA announcements since Monday. Soybean meal was mixed, with nearby contracts up and deferred months down on bull spreading tied to demand expectations. Soybean oil was up on the higher moves in palm and crude oils.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. Corn yields have generally been solid, but near-term delays are likely in parts of the region. Even though rain could impact quality, that depends on the duration and severity of the event, and in general, the precipitation is welcome after a long dry, warm stretch in much of the Corn Belt. Corn is also monitoring planting conditions in South America. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and estimates is out October 11^th. New crop export sales were above a week ago at 33.4 million bushels, mostly to Mexico and unknown destinations. Forecasts for Argentina and Brazil are generally warm with only scattered rainfall into the weekend. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says corn exports are expected drop sharply in 2024/25 due to tighter domestic supplies and a smaller crop.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. Paris milling wheat was lower ahead of the U.S. session and the dollar was up. Late spring wheat harvest delays are likely, but that forecasted rain in the Plains should help winter wheat over the long-term, even if it sets back planting somewhat. The USDA’s Small Grains Summary is out on the 30^th, along with a quarterly update on grain stocks. U.S. export sales were lower than average at 9 million bushels, mostly hard red spring, with Mexico and the Philippines leading the pack. The USDA also reported very light 2025/26 sales to Peru. Brazil’s Foreign Trade Chamber will reportedly raise import quotas through the end of 2024 to bolster domestic supplies. Ongoing trade sentiment is that India will need to import wheat to lower domestic prices and short up stocks. It remains to be seen how much of that would come from the U.S., with Russia considered to be the most likely source. France’s AgriMer estimates 2024/25 soft wheat exports at 10.1 million tons, 4 million less than the last guess due to slower sales outside of the European Union.