Market News
Lagging soybean crop gaining more market attention
Another abnormally cool week of summer weather has market analysts paying more attention to the lagging development of the U.S. soybean crop.
Allendale’s Joe Victor points to 2008, when the crop was also behind going into August. He says the 2008 soybean yield went from an estimated 41-point-six bushels in July to a final yield of 39-point-six bushels in January, a drop of nearly five percent.
“Using that kind of a formula,” Victor says, ” it would not surprise us to see that if these beans continue to lag in maturity, you can’t rule out the fact that we’re going to end up with smaller end stocks than what USDA is projecting presently, at 250 million bushels.”
How much smaller? “I would say we’d be comfortable in a range, based on maturity alone, of 125 to 175 million bushel end stocks,” Victor says.
He says traders are also watching corn development and may be ready to add a weather premium to that market.
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