Market News

Milder weather forecast sends soybeans, corn lower

Soybeans were lower on speculative and technical selling. The USDA’s national soybean rating was up 1% on the week, holding above a year ago. Forecasts for this week are generally a little cooler, with rain in some areas. That’ll ease some of the recent regional stress, but on the balance, the trade is expecting a very large crop this year with strong, if not record, yields, nationally. China reportedly bought U.S. soybeans early this week, but also continues to buy beans from Brazil as well. Old crop demand for U.S. beans has been very slow due to Brazil’s price dominance, and while new crop sales have picked up steam a little due to more competitive pricing, the pace continues to be a little disappointing to the trade. That’s been offset somewhat by solid domestic crush demand. The 2024/25 marketing year for soybeans, and corn, starts September 1^st. Soybean meal and oil were down on the fundamental implications of a large U.S. soybean crop.

Corn was lower on speculative and technical selling. The national corn rating declined slightly but remains better than average. The USDA is expected to adjust yield and acreage numbers in next week’s supply, demand, and production report. Globally, adjustments are also possible for the Black Sea region and South America. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and stocks numbers are out Wednesday. The Renewable Fuels Association says June ethanol exports were the largest on record for the month, but still 6% less than in May. Canada once again claimed the top slot, followed by the United Kingdom, the European Union, India, and Colombia. DDGS exports of 945,592 tons were down 7% on the month, mainly to Mexico, South Korea, and Indonesia. The USDA’s attaché in Brazil projects the 2024/25 corn crop at a combined 127 million tons, compared to the 2023/24 total of 122 million tons on expectations for improved weather and higher planted area. Exports next marketing year are pegged at 46 million tons, compared to 45 million in the current marketing year. The current second crop harvest in Brazil is close to wrapping up, with CONAB’s updated outlook set for Tuesday, August 13^th. The USDA’s office for the European Union has 2024/25 corn production at 59.8 million tons, compared to the official guess of 64 million and the 2023/24 total of 61.5 million because of lower yields and planted area. Imports are seen at 19 million tons, compared to 20 million in the prior marketing year.

The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying. The spring wheat rating was unchanged despite the recent high temperatures in the northern U.S. Plains, and the winter wheat harvest is ahead of average, with most of the remaining activity in the high Plains and Pacific Northwest. The USDA will also likely make some revisions to global wheat production estimates out on the 12^th. That follows crop weather issues in Argentina, France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine. The USDA’s attaché for the European Union has 2024/25 wheat production at 127.45 million tons, compared to the last official guess of 130 million and the year ago total of 134.9 million tons. That year-to-year decline is because of smaller crops in several nations canceling out an increase in Spain. Exports are for this marketing year are projected at 31.6 million tons, compared to 36.7 million in the recently ended 2023/24 marketing year. The attaché in Brazil sees 2024/25 wheat at 9.6 million tons, compared to 8.3 million in 2023/24, largely on yield expectations, but with planting nearly wrapped up, that is highly subject to change. Imports are estimated at 5.5 million tons, compared to 5.6 million in the previous marketing year.