Market News

Mixed finishes for soybeans and corn

Soybeans were mixed, with deferred contracts unable to follow through on their early gains. The USDA’s national crop condition rating was up on the week, planting is nearly over, and development weather generally looks good. The USDA will release its June supply, demand, and production numbers Thursday. CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil is also out Thursday and is expected to confirm record 2024/25 production. Beans were waiting for any news out of this week’s round of tariff talks with China. Nothing firm was reported during the session, but the meetings themselves are viewed as a broadly positive step. Soybean meal was mixed on bull spreading, supporting nearby contracts and pressuring deferred months, while bean oil was up on demand expectations.

Corn was mixed, mostly modestly higher. The corn rating saw an improvement, with generally favorable development conditions in much of the region. While the trade has dialed in a big crop, there is the potential for a hotter, drier pattern as summer sets in across the Corn Belt. The second crop harvest in Brazil is underway but is slower than average at 2% complete, the slowest pace in 5 years, partially due to late planting in some key growing areas. Less than half of the crop has reportedly reached maturity. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production, stocks, and export numbers are out Wednesday.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling, along with the firm trade in the dollar during the session. The USDA’s spring and winter wheat crop ratings were above a week ago. The winter wheat harvest is slower than average due to rain and there is some disease talk for both the hard and the soft red winter crops. Estimates for Russia’s crop are rising, despite dry weather in some key growing areas. The latest is SovEcon, which now has the crop at 82.8 million tons, just below the USDA’s last official guess. The trade’s also watching planting and/or development weather in Argentina, Australia, Canada, China, Europe, and Ukraine. Some forecasts do have the potential for much-needed widespread rain in drier parts of the Canadian Prairies next week.