Market News

Mixed midweek finishes for soybeans, corn, wheat

Soybeans were mixed, with nearby contracts down and deferred months up. The U.S. and China are scheduled to meet this weekend for tariff talks, but a lot of the early support tied to that news largely died out before midday, with a low probability of the situation being resolved quickly. New crop prices were firm as any thaw in the trade relationship would likely be far more beneficial to 2025/26 beans than 2024/25. Beans are watching the U.S. planting pace, which looks good outside of more rain in southern growing areas over the next few days, and harvest activity in Argentina, which has seen some recent delays. Brazil’s harvest is over with an early eye on 2025/26 planting adjustments. Soybean meal was higher and bean oil was lower on the adjustment of product spreads.

Corn was steady to lower. U.S. planting conditions are favorable in most areas, but southern parts of the region are expected see more near-term rain. Still, with the heart of the Corn Belt anticipating a shift to warmer, drier conditions, that should keep national progress at or ahead of the normal pace. Estimates for Brazil’s second crop are rising ahead of next week’s numbers from the USDA and CONAB, out the 12^th and the 15^th, respectively. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production averaged 1.02 million barrels per day, down 20,000 on the week, but up 55,000 on the year, with stocks a near-four month low at 25.191 million barrels, 198,000 lower than the previous week, but up 991,000 from a year ago. Ethanol exports averaged 129,000 barrels per day, a decline of 12,000 from the week before and 51,000 from last year.

The wheat complex was mostly lower, with the dollar up during the session. The trade continues to watch U.S. and world planting and development conditions. Stateside, winter wheat ratings have generally improved and spring wheat planting is moving well. Globally, there are concerns about dry weather in parts of the north China plains, with the trade also monitoring Australia, Canada, Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. The USDA will update its U.S. winter wheat production projection next Monday, along with world numbers. Some types of U.S. wheat are more competitive on the export market, which could boost demand for new crop. The USDA’s weekly sales numbers are out Thursday morning.