Market News

Modest changes for soybeans, corn, wheat

Soybeans were modestly higher on fund and technical buying. Development weather in most of South America remains favorable, with the trade anticipating big crops. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production estimates is out December 10^th, with CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil on the 12^th. The Rosario Grain Exchange estimates Argentina’s crop at 53 million to 53.5 million tons. Soybean products were up with oil in the lead on global demand expectations, which spilled over into beans. That helped beans close basically firm after a brief midday move to mixed with no real fresh fundamental news. No export sales were announced Tuesday morning, breaking a streak of three business days with reported purchases by China and unknown destinations. The trade’s also keeping an eye out for any signals on a renewed trade battle with China under the incoming presidential administration.

Corn was modestly lower on fund and technical selling. Corn is also monitoring weather in South America, with rain in the forecast for parts of Argentina. The bigger test for South America will be the performance of Brazil’s second crop, the source of most of that nation’s exports, which is planted after soybeans are harvested. StoneX pegs Brazil’s combined 2024/25 crop at 121.8 million tons, with exports seen at 40 million tons. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange sees Argentina’s crop at 50 million to 51 million tons. Demand continues to be solid from the feed, fuel, and export sectors. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol numbers are out Wednesday. A potential trade war with Mexico would likely have a big impact on export business.

The wheat complex was mostly modestly higher. Russia’s cap on exports could boost U.S. sales, but Moscow still has the near-term price advantage. The U.S. will also have to contend with the relative strength of the U.S. dollar and the crops coming onto the market out of Argentina and Australia, with harvest ongoing in the Southern Hemisphere. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange’s most recent guess for Argentina is 18.8 million tons. U.S. winter wheat is in good shape, with most of the crop now dormant. The trade is also monitoring conditions in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. Forecasts have warmer weather this winter in parts of India, which could impact yields.