Market News

Modest gains for soybeans, corn, wheat

Soybeans ended a mostly mixed session modestly higher on commercial and technical buying. Soybeans are monitoring the late U.S. harvest, expecting delays in parts of the Midwest and Plains. Still, the soil moisture recharge is generally welcome after a very long dry stretch for much of the region. The trade’s also watching planting and development conditions in South America, which look mostly favorable. The USDA’s updated supply, demand, and production numbers are out Friday, November 8^th, with CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil set for the 15^th. Ahead of those supply, demand, and production numbers, analysts expect minimal changes to the USDA’s 2024 soybean and corn crop projections, with the preliminary totals scheduled for January. Soybean meal was mixed, mostly higher, on spread trade out of nearby December and into deferred contracts, while soybean oil was down on follow through selling. Domestic crush margins remain bullish.

Corn was modestly higher on commercial and technical buying. 91% of U.S. corn is harvested, with rain delays in the forecast for some areas over the next few days. Unknown destinations bought 124,000 tons of 2024/25 U.S. corn ahead of the open, the third business day in a row with an announced sale. That puts the running total for this marketing year at 1,109,800 tons and adding in the sales for next marketing year pushes the total to 1,175,332 tons. A significant portion of this spike in sales has been to unknown, some of which could turn out to be China down the road. The Renewable Fuels Association says September ethanol exports were 148.5 million gallons, up 5% from August, mainly to Canada, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Colombia, and Mexico, while exports of distillers dried grains with solubles were down 10% on the month at 1.01 million tons, with Mexico topping the list. The U.S. Energy Information’s weekly ethanol production, stocks, and export numbers are out Wednesday.

The wheat complex was modestly higher on fund and technical buying, along with the lower trade in the dollar during the session. The USDA’s winter wheat condition rating improved thanks to precipitation in parts of the Plains and Midwest but remains below a year ago. The recent rain should boost that condition rating, along with the pace of emergence, while planting is close to officially wrapping up. The trade is also watching planting activity and development weather in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, along with the harvests in Argentina and Australia. Egypt bought 290,000 tons of wheat, 120,000 tons each from Romania and Ukraine, along with 50,000 tons from Bulgaria.