Market News

Modest losses for corn, wheat, with soybeans mostly up

Soybeans ended the session steady to modestly higher. There has been a lot of talk about the easing of the tariff battle with China, but no official public progress is evident. While any hint of negotiation between the world’s two largest economies can be seen as positive, it looks like beans are still largely taking a wait and see attitude. The trade continues to monitor U.S. planting conditions and harvest activity in Argentina. Brazil’s harvest is essentially wrapped up for the year. The USDA’s next set of supply and demand numbers is out May 12^th, while CONAB’s update for Brazil is out May 15^th. Soybean meal was mixed, adjusting spreads, and bean oil followed crude oil.

Corn was modestly lower on fund and technical selling. Planting is ahead of average nationally and forecasts for most areas this week are generally favorable. While some near-term planting delays are likely through early next week, the precipitation is viewed as largely positive, recharging soil moisture. Losses were limited by the solid feed, fuel, and export demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production averaged 1.033 million barrels a day, up 21,000 on the week and 79,000 on the year, while stocks fell to a 14-week low at 25.481 million barrels, a decline of 1.333 million from the week before and 252,000 from a year ago. Ethanol exports averaged 75,000 barrels a day, a decrease of 62,000 from a week ago and 59,000 from last year.

The wheat complex was modestly lower on fund and technical selling, along with the higher trade in the dollar during the session. Most forecasts have good near-term rainfall chances for parts of the central and southern U.S. Plains, while sections of the eastern Midwest and Delta could see a drier near-term pattern. Drought is also an ongoing issue in parts of Ukraine and Russia on the Black Sea and an emerging concern in portions of China. Wheat continues to also monitor the potential for an end to Russia’s war on Ukraine. A deal has been floated, but many see the deal as favoring Russia over Ukraine, which might impact Kyiv’s willingness to accept it.