Market News

Modestly lower finishes for corn and wheat

Soybeans were narrowly mixed, with nearby contracts up and deferred months down, as traders adjusted spreads. CONAB raised its outlook for Brazil’s bean crop slightly, now pegged at 166.211 million tons and production is currently expected to be up 12.5% on the year. Crop development weather in most of South America is generally favorable. Unknown destinations bought 334,000 tons of U.S. soybeans ahead of the open, while weekly sales were bearish, falling below the prior week and the four-week average at 43.1 million bushels. The big buyers for the week were China and Spain, with a notable cancelation by unknown destinations. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads.

Corn was modestly lower on profit taking and technical selling. CONAB made a modest cut to its corn outlook for Brazil, down 0.2% from November at 119.633 million tons, but the combined crop is still expected to be record large and could be 3.4% larger than last year. First crop production is projected at 22.615 million tons, with the second crop at 94.631 million and the third crop at 2.387 million tons. Development conditions in much of Argentina and Brazil looks favorable through at least the end of the year. U.S. export sales were down on the week and under the four-week average at 37.3 million bushels, with Colombia and Mexico leading the pack. Also, ethanol margins have tightened, which could discourage production if demand falters. There are also some questions about biofuels policy under the second Trump administration, in addition to concerns about a trade battle with Mexico.

The wheat complex was modestly lower on profit taking and technical selling, along with the higher trade in the dollar index for most of the session. Wheat continues to monitor harvest activity in Argentina and Australia. The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its estimate for Argentina’s crop by a half million tons to 19.3 million, citing beneficial November weather. The trade is also monitoring weather in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. While export sales were below a week ago and lower than average, the overall pace remains ahead of last marketing year, even with hefty competition. The total for last week’s sales was 10.7 million bushels, primarily to the Philippines and Mexico.