Market News

Mostly down day for soybeans, corn, wheat

Soybeans were mixed, mostly weak, adjusting spreads. Forecasts show some near-term harvest delays in the Midwest and Plains ahead of a generally drier pattern. There is a chance of a frost/freeze event later this week in some key growing areas. Soybean meal was mostly higher and bean oil was lower on the unwinding of product spreads. Crush margins have narrowed and planting conditions in South America are mixed. Conditions are mostly drier than ideal in northern Brazil and Argentina, but excessively wet in portions of southern Brazil. Regardless, at this stage, the trade is expecting another record soybean crop in Brazil and a larger crop than last year for Argentina. The USDA’s next round of supply and demand estimates is out October 12^th.

Corn was modestly lower on fund and technical selling. Corn is expecting generally good harvest progress after this short-term wet pattern moves on. Anecdotal yields have been mixed, but some reports to have better numbers than what the USDA projected last month. Ethanol margins have dipped while still holding solidly in positive territory. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says production averaged 1.009 million barrels a day, unchanged on the week and up 120,000 on the year, with stocks of 21.884 million barrels, a decrease of 164,000 from the previous week, but an increase of 199,000 from a year ago. Mexico bought U.S. corn 196,607 tons of U.S. corn ahead of the open, with 109,226 tons for 2023/24 and 87,381 tons for 2024/25. That brings the week to date total for announced sales to Mexico to 406,607 tons, 319,226 of that for delivery this marketing year. The USDA’s weekly sales numbers are out Thursday morning.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. The fundamental outlook remains bearish because of slow export demand. The USDA is projecting U.S. exports this marketing year at multi-decade lows as Russia continues to command a significant portion of the market, even if their advantage has slipped a bit in recent weeks. Ukraine is still moving grain, just at lower levels due to the ongoing war with Russia. Some U.S. winter wheat planting delays are probable, but that’s also recharging soil moisture ahead of the crop heading into dormancy. Conditions in Australia are mixed, with late rain in eastern growing areas and continued dry weather in the west.