Market News

Short covering pulls soybeans and corn higher; mixed wheat follows Canadian data

Soybeans were modestly higher on short covering and technical buying. Planting and development weather in South America continues to look generally favorable, with the trade expecting big crops. The trade still has a lot of uncertainty about the timing of U.S. soybean sales to China. Part of that is due to conflicting comments from U.S. Cabinet departments over the past couple of days. There have been no reported sales by the USDA this week, which means one of two things – there have been no sales, or those sales have not met the 100,000-ton threshold. Either way, some U.S. vessels are reportedly either loading or have loaded and are on the way to China or will be soon. Beijing says it plans to auction 2.5 million tons from state reserves. Soybean meal futures were mixed, consolidating, and bean oil was up on the higher moves in soybeans and crude oil. Statistics Canada says 2025 canola production was 21.804 million tons, a jump of 13.3% on the year, with a record yield canceling out a dip in harvested area. Canada’s soybean crop totaled 6.793 million tons, a decline of 10.2% from 2024.

Corn was modestly higher on short covering and technical buying. Corn is monitoring conditions in Argentina and Brazil ahead of next week’s numbers from the USDA and CONAB, which are out on Tuesday the 9^th and Thursday the 11^th, respectively. The delayed export sales numbers which will continue to roll out through January haven’t held many surprises, but they have reflected the ongoing strong global demand for U.S. corn. Ahead of Thursday’s open, Mexico bought 392,500 tons of 2025/26 U.S. corn and Colombia picked up 100,800 tons. Overall demand continues to be solid, even if there are some concerns about livestock feed usage, largely due to tight cattle supplies. A feed mill group from Taiwan reportedly passed on a 65,000-ton corn tender, with only U.S. corn on offer. Statistics Canada says the 2025 corn for grain crop was 14.867 million tons, 3.1% lower than last year with a smaller yield canceling out a slight rise in harvested area.

The wheat complex was mixed, with Chicago and Kansas City up and Minneapolis down. Statistics Canada has 2025 all wheat production in Canada at a record 39.955 million tons, rising 11.2% from 2024. That includes 29.259 million tons of spring wheat and 3.561 million tons of winter wheat, which were increases of 10.3% and 17% on the year, respectively. That topped pre-report expectations and was likely the source of at least some of the pressure in Minneapolis. Wheat is also monitoring harvest activity in Argentina and Australia, and development weather in the U.S., Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, in addition to the negotiations aimed at ending Russia’s war on Ukraine. Export demand is good, even with U.S. wheat at a price disadvantage to some key competitors. Thailand has reportedly purchased around 240,000 tons of feed wheat this week.