Market News

Slow, lower midweek session for soybeans, corn, wheat

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling. The trade’s watching Brazil’s harvest, with quality concerns reported in some areas. Adjustments to private production estimates have been mixed, some a little lower, some a little higher, but general consensus continues to be “record production”. The USDA’s updated supply and demand numbers are out March 10^th, while CONAB’s next set of projections for Brazil is out on the 13^th. New export demand from China is a big question mark. There’s been a lot of talk about China buying more U.S. beans for 2025/26 delivery, but Beijing is also still purchasing significant amounts from Brazil, new U.S. tariffs are in effect this week, and the military action in Iran is disrupting business with a key trading partner. Soybean meal futures were lower and soybean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. Corn is watching weather in South America, with mixed near-term rain chances for Argentina and Brazil. Stateside, there are a lot of questions about input availability and cost ahead of spring planting. Unknown destinations bought 125,000 tons of 2025/26 U.S. corn ahead of the open, the second day in a row with an announced sale to unknown for a running total of 321,000 tons. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production averaged 1.095 million barrels per day, down 18,000 on the week, but up 2,000 on the year, with stocks of 26.377 million barrels, rising 691,000 from the previous week, but falling 952,000 from a year ago, while exports averaged 217,000 barrels per day, an increase of 76,000 from the week before and 94,000 from last year. Ethanol production was a four-week low, while the domestic supply was the largest in nearly a year.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. Portions of U.S. hard and soft red winter growing areas should see more rain this week. While that won’t be enough to break drought, it should boost conditions at least in parts of the region ahead of the crop breaking dormancy. Wheat is also watching overwintering weather in Europe and the Black Sea region. Export demand is good despite high U.S. prices and large world supplies. That’s at least partially because of slower shipments out of Ukraine caused by ongoing Russian aggression. The military action in Iran is likely also having some impact on shipping from the Black Sea. The USDA’s weekly U.S. export sales numbers are out Thursday. Statistics Canada’s planting intentions report for Canada is also out Thursday, with most analysts expecting a modest year-to-year decline in acreage.