Market News

Soybean, corn futures boosted by technical buying, watching planting

Soybeans were higher on fund and technical buying, adding to what would have already been a higher weekly finish. Beans followed bean oil to some degree, which was up on crush margins and demand expectations. Soybean meal futures took their cue from both beans and bean oil. The USDA says 227 million bushels of soybeans were crushed during March, a little bit lower than expected, but still up 13 million on the month and 20 million on the year. Soybean product stocks were below a month ago due to demand, but above a year ago because of the higher rate of production. U.S. planting conditions generally look favorable into mid-month. There are some areas of concern, but again, on the balance, the trade expects U.S. soybean planting to remain at a record pace. The USDA’s weekly national crop progress and condition numbers are out Monday afternoon. Soybeans are maintaining cautious optimism about the expected mid-month meeting between President Trump and President Xi, which could lead to a boost in export demand from China for old crop U.S. soybeans. However, that at least partially hinges on what happens in Iran and the Middle East. China is still buying routine amounts of soybeans from the U.S. but is largely relying on Brazil.

Corn was higher on fund and technical buying, closing out the week in the black. Unknown destinations bought 148,240 tons of U.S. corn ahead of the open, with 78,240 tons for 2025/26 delivery and 70,000 tons for 2026/27. The USDA says 474.434 million bushels of corn were used in ethanol production during March 2026, an increase of 10% from February and 5% from March 2025, reflecting industry demand expectations and the large available supply of corn. Production of distillers dried grains with solubles was 1,793,909 tons, 10% more than the prior month, but 1% less than last year. Planting weather looks good in most of the Corn Belt. Still, portions of the region were missed by recent rainfall, other areas got excessive precipitation, and some areas will see cooler near-term temperatures, possibly inhibiting early development. Export demand is solid, but Argentina’s prices are falling as their record harvest moves forward, which could cut into the U.S. advantage. Parts of Brazil’s second crop corn growing areas need rain. The USDA’s updated supply and demand numbers are out May 10^th, while CONAB’s next look at Brazil is set for May 14^th.

The wheat complex was mixed Friday, while still posting solid week-to-week gains. The trade is watching near-term rain chances for dry parts of the central and southern U.S. Plains. Forecasts generally have scattered precipitation and it might be too little, too late for part of the U.S. hard red winter crop. Soft red winter conditions are comparatively good, but some areas might have too much soil moisture. Wheat’s also monitoring spring wheat planting. Globally, the trade is looking at development weather in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, in addition to planting in Argentina, Australia, and Canada. World supplies are ample and the recent rally might have priced U.S. wheat out of the export market, except for some of the usual buyers. The USDA says 222.403 million bushels of wheat were used for flour production during the first quarter of 2026, down 2% from both the fourth quarter and first quarter of 2025. For 2025, 907.207 million bushels of wheat were used to make flour, 1% less than the 2024 total.