Market News

Soybean futures cool off as traders watch China

Soybeans were lower on profit taking and technical selling, along with higher trade in the dollar during the session. Contracts look overbought after the recent strength, but beans remain optimistic about trade deal framework with China. While China has purchased U.S. soybeans under that framework and has pledged to buy more over the next three years, nothing official has actually been signed and Beijing continues to also buy beans from Brazil. The U.S. Supreme Court is set to hear arguments on the legality of U.S. tariffs Wednesday. Late U.S. harvest weather and South American conditions look favorable. StoneX now has the 2025 U.S. soybean average yield at 53.6 bushels per acre, 0.3 less than the last guess, with the crop currently expected to total 4.303 billion bushels. The USDA’s updated supply, demand, and production numbers are out November 14^th, along with CONAB’s new projections for Brazil. AgRural says 47% of Brazil’s soybean crop is planted. Soybean meal and oil futures were pressured by profit taking. Soybean processors and bean meal buyers in Bangladesh say they will purchase $1.25 billion in U.S. beans and meal over the course of the next 12 months.

Corn was modestly lower on profit taking and technical selling. Corn ran into overhead resistance, with traders also watching the U.S. harvest and South American weather. Stateside, StoneX currently has the U.S. corn yield at 186 bushels per acre, 0.1 more than the October guess, with mostly higher yields in the Western Corn Belt canceling out cuts in much of the Eastern Corn Belt. Production is seen at 16.748 billion bushels. AgRural says 60% of first crop corn has been planted in center-south Brazil. There’s talk about sorghum replacing corn in ethanol production in some areas. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production, supply, and export numbers are out Wednesday. While export demand is solid, lower prices in some competing sellers could start to cut into U.S. global sales.

The wheat complex was mixed, taking the path of least resistance. While there’s talk of China being in the market for U.S. wheat, partially due to basis tracking in the Pacific Northwest, there’s no confirmation as of yet. The USDA’s weekly sales numbers and daily sales announcements remain suspended by the now record-long partial shutdown of the federal government. U.S. winter wheat development weather mostly looks good. The trade is also monitoring wheat at various stages of planting, development, and harvest in Argentina, Australia, Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. SovEcon now has 2025/26 wheat exports by Russia at 43.8 million tons, 400,000 above the prior estimate. Ukraine’s ministry of the economy says 90% of winter wheat has been planted. The Philippines reportedly bought 150,000 tons of feed wheat from Australia.