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Soybeans, corn both bounce off recent lows

Soybeans were higher on fund and technical buying. Contracts found some new interest near the recent mutli-year lows, helped out by good weekly sales and unknown destinations buying U.S. beans Thursday morning. The weekly total of 52.3 million bushels was up on the week, but lower than average, primarily to China and unknown destinations. Thursday’s sale to unknown was for 227,200 tons, with 152,200 for 2024/25 and 75,000 tons for 2025/26. Gains were limited by the favorable conditions in South America, with the trade anticipating big crops out of that continent in 2025. The harvested has started in Brazil for very early planted beans, but widespread activity won’t really kick off until late January. Soybean meal and oil were up on oversold signals.

Corn was up on fund and technical buying, rallying slightly after a mostly lower start to the session. Corn is monitoring development weather in Argentina and Brazil and rising crop estimates from some private firms. There are some concerns about an emerging dry pattern in parts of South America, but for now, on the balance, the trade is expecting big crops out of and a lot of competition from Argentina and Brazil in 2025. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers is out January 10th, with CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil slated for January 14th. Export sales were above a week ago at 46.2 million bushels, but lower than average, with Mexico and Japan leading the way, offsetting a cancelation by unknown destinations. There was also a small amount of 2025/26 U.S. corn sold to Nicaragua.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. Wheat was pressured by the relative strength of the dollar, which limits U.S. export competition. Export sales were higher than the previous week and larger than average at 16.8 million bushels, topped by the Philippines and Venezuela, but Argentina continues to have the lowest price on the market and sustained gains in the dollar would further push the U.S. away from some potential market expansion. While there are expectations the U.S. will pick up some business after Russia caps sales and raises tariffs in February, most of that will likely be picked up by other sellers, including Argentina and Australia.

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