Market News

Soybeans, corn close mixed as wheat drifts lower

Soybeans were mixed. Export sales were down on the week at 13 million bushels and while China was the leading buyer, followed by Taiwan, it was a routine week of sales overall. That reflects Brazil’s current dominance over the global soybean market and could be construed as a sign the ongoing tariff talk is having on demand in general. Negotiations are ongoing, but new tariffs on Mexico and Canada are scheduled to go into effect in early April. The European Union has delayed its reciprocal tariffs against the U.S. until mid-April. The trade continues to monitor harvest activity in Argentina and Brazil. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers and CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil are both out April 10^th. ABIOVE did lower its outlook for Brazil to 170.9 million tons, still record large and up 11% on the year and maintained its crush guess at 106.1 million tons. Soybean meal was higher and bean oil was lower on the unwinding of product spreads. The USDA’s attaché in China projects 2025/26 production at 19.8 million tons, compared to the 2024/25 estimate of 19.9 million. New crop imports are seen at 106 million tons, compared to 104 million during the current marketing year, with crush expected to rise 2 million tons to 101 million.

Corn was mixed on bull spreading. Old crop corn export sales were above a week ago at 58.9 million bushels, with solid demand from Japan, South Korea, and Mexico. New crop sales of 2.4 million bushels were to Mexico and Japan with a small cancelation by China. Second crop development weather looks mixed for Brazil, with rain in some areas and dry conditions in others, and the trade is also monitoring the early stages of harvest in Argentina and conditions ahead of U.S. planting. The USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports are out Monday, March 31^st. Expectations are generally for a rise in 2025 domestic acreage, largely at the expense of soybeans, and for a tighter domestic supply. The USDA’s attaché for Colombia pegs 2025/26 corn imports at 7.2 million tons on rising livestock feeding demand, with a big chunk of that expected to be sourced from the U.S. The office has 2024/25 corn imports by Colombia at 6.95 million tons.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling, along with the higher trade in the dollar during the session. 2024/25 export sales were a marketing year low and a net reduction following big cancelations by Panama and unknown destinations, more than canceling out routine demand from Vietnam, Indonesia, and a handful of others. New crop sales were strong at 18 million bushels, primarily to Guatemala and Mexico. The new marketing year for wheat gets underway June 1^st. Forecasts for most of the southern Plains look dry into April and there are also concerns about weather in parts of the Black Sea region and Europe, but if the past couple of sessions are any indication, those concerns are largely dialed in. A potential ceasefire in Russia’s war on Ukraine is a big uncertainty.