Market News

Soybeans, corn down, but above day’s lows, watching weather, crude oil

Soybeans were modestly lower on fund and technical selling. Old crop export sales were a marketing year low at 5.2 million bushels and the trade’s waiting to see what happens next week in China. China was the top purchaser of old crop last week, but it was a minimal purchase as Beijing continues to focus on beans from Brazil due to price and politics. Japan took second place for 2025/26. Sales of 200,000 bushels for 2026/27 delivery were all to Indonesia. Commodities are also monitoring the situation in the Middle East. Some hope for a relatively speedy end to the conflict in Iran did pressure crude oil for most of Thursday, but crude bounced after the prospects for a fast re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz dimmed again, eventually closing mixed. Even if the Strait reopens soon, full resumption of production, movement, and business, and a reduction in some of the consumer prices connected to the closure, would take some time. Stateside, the trade’s keeping an eye on planting and development weather, and globally, it’s watching harvest activity in Argentina. Soybean meal futures were mixed on bull spreading, while soybean oil was lower on profit taking and overbought signals.

Corn was modestly lower on fund and technical selling. Old crop export sales were good, but below average at 53.6 million bushels, and new crop sales were routine at 4.8 million bushels. The big old crop buyers were Taiwan and Colombia, with a big cancelation by unknown destinations, while unknown and Mexico led the way on new crop. The trade is monitoring planting delays and potential emergence impacts from cooler weather, in addition to the harvest in Argentina and second crop development conditions in Brazil. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production estimates, including the first official look at new crop, is out May 12^th and CONAB’s updated numbers for Brazil are out on the 14^th. Corn also saw some influence from crude oil for a big chunk of Thursday’s session.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. The hard red winter crop continues to be hit by weather issues ranging from drought to snow. Still, the market’s focus largely continues to the ample global supply and mostly favorable world crop weather. Additionally, the U.S. soft red winter crop is in relatively good condition. The U.S. Drought Monitor says 70% of U.S. winter wheat growing areas are in some stage of drought, with much of that in the Plains. Wheat is also watching planting in the U.S., Argentina, Australia, and Canada, along with development conditions in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. Weekly old crop U.S. wheat sales were 2.9 million bushels, mainly to Vietnam and Thailand, while new crop sales were 6.9 million bushels, mostly to unknown destinations and Thailand. The 2026/27 marketing year for wheat gets underway June 1^st. Russian railway firm Rusagrotrans sees May wheat exports at 2.5 million tons, with would be down from the 3.95 million in April, but up 19% from a year ago.