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Soybeans, corn down despite lower crop ratings

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling. The USDA’s national condition rating dipped, but remains above a year ago, even with big drops in some states. That week-to-week decline was largely due to the hot, dry weather in southern and eastern portions of the growing region. There’s some rain in the forecast this week, which will be welcome in some areas, but could compound flooding problems or bring strong storms to other areas. Export demand is slow, especially for new crop, as Brazil maintains its hold on the market. CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil is set for July 11th, with the USDA’s next round of supply and demand numbers out July 12th. Soybean meal was down on profit taking and expectations for more export competition from Argentina, while bean oil was pressured by follow through selling.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. The corn condition rating declined within trade expectations, while holding above year ago levels. That was largely due to heat stress in the east and south, with flooding not fully factored in yet. That also won’t be reflected in Friday’s USDA planted acreage report and won’t really show up until prevent plant numbers are released in August. The USDA’s quarterly grain stocks report is also out Friday. Prior to that, the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol numbers are out Wednesday. The impact of flooding in portions of the northern Corn Belt is expected to be reflected in next week’s ethanol numbers. The December contract closed below what had been support at $4.50. AgRural says 34% of the second corn crop in central and southern Brazil has been harvested, the fastest pace in more than a decade. Mexico bought a total of 209,931 tons of U.S. corn, with 22,098 for 2023/24 delivery and 187,833 for 2024/25.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling, along with the higher trade in the dollar during the session. The U.S. winter wheat harvest is ahead of average, with the condition rating improving against seasonal trends, while the spring wheat rating did move lower, roughly as expected ahead of the weekly numbers. Forecasts do have more rain in the forecast for some spring wheat growing areas in the Northern U.S. Plains. Yield results in Russia have been better than expected in some areas, despite the frost earlier in the season ongoing dry weather impacting both Russia and Ukraine. The Rosario Grain Exchange says it is optimistic about 2024/25 crop development due to what’s expected to be a weaker La Nina pattern. The European Union’s crop agency MARS has lowered its soft wheat yield estimate from May, but the current guess does match the five-year average.

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