Market News

Soybeans, corn down on improved USDA ratings

Soybeans were lower on profit taking and technical selling. The USDA’s national crop rating improved over the past week and development is ahead of average overall. There are some areas of concern and the crop is still moving through key development phases, but for now, the trade is taking a wait and see attitude towards potential damage. CONAB raised its already record large soybean crop estimate fractionally from June. With the 2025/26 harvest wrapped, CONAB has Brazil’s bean crop at 180.568 million tons, an increase of 0.2% on the month and 5.3% on the year. CONAB also raised domestic crush and exports projections. The USDA’s next round of supply and demand estimates is out August 12^th, with CONAB’s next look at Brazil’s crop August 13^th. The USDA did not announce any new U.S. soybean export sales Tuesday, breaking a streak of four business days. Most of those sales had been to China for 2026/27 delivery. U.S. prices are increasingly competitive. Soybean meal futures were higher and soybean oil was lower on the adjustment of product spreads. The NOPA’s member crush numbers for June are out Wednesday, with analysts projecting the total at 203.989 million bushels, which would be down from May, but up from June 2026.

Corn was lower on profit taking and technical selling. The USDA’s national corn rating was above a week ago, but that could decline with hot, dry weather in some areas. The big question is how long the event will last. Still, it is summer in the Midwest, heat is a given, and many corn varieties currently planted deal with hot, dry weather better than older varieties. CONAB’s total corn crop projection was up 0.9% from last month at 141.729 million tons, which would be 0.4% more than 2025 thanks to higher planted area and improved yields. The first crop harvest is nearly over with production pegged at 29.604 million tons, with second crop harvest activity ongoing and production estimated at 109.43 million tons. Third crop production is seen at 2.695 million tons, with CONAB noting weather issues during planting. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol numbers are out Wednesday.

The wheat complex was higher on fund and technical buying. The trade is monitoring potential movement issues near the Black Sea region as Russia’s war on Ukraine continues. Recent actions in the war could end up cutting off about a quarter of Russia’s wheat exports, potentially opening the door for other suppliers, including the U.S. Spring wheat is in good shape and development is near normal, but a hotter, drier pattern could have an impact conditions and, eventually, yields, while winter wheat harvest activity should wrap up soon in some areas. The Russia/Ukraine issue, potential spring wheat crop stress, and the end of harvest pressure could provide some support, but traders remain very wary about pricing wheat above demand for anyone except the consistent customers. Wheat is also monitoring Argentina, Australia, Canada, and crops in Russia and Ukraine.