Market News

Soybeans, corn down, watching harvest activity

Soybeans were modestly lower on fund and technical selling. The trade is expecting the USDA to report generally good harvest progress in the weekly numbers, out Tuesday. The USDA’s weekly export inspections report will also be out Tuesday. Very low levels on the Mississippi River could lead to an increase in train and truck traffic in the coming weeks. Some harvest delays are probable in parts of the Midwest and Plains later this week.  Beans are also monitoring planting activity and weather in South America. AgRural says 10.1% of Brazil’s crop has been planted, a little bit ahead of the year ago pace. CONAB’s first new crop projection of the season is out Tuesday. It’s expected to be another record crop, but conditions are mixed, with some southern areas of Brazil too wet and some northern portions too dry. Soybean meal was higher and bean oil was lower on the adjustment of product spreads.

Corn was modestly lower on fund and technical selling. Corn is watching harvest activity, expecting good progress in most of the region ahead of a rain related slowdown. Frost was reported in some areas over the weekend, but temperatures are generally expected to get warmer around midweek. The USDA’s updated yield and production numbers are out Thursday. The big question is how many adjustments the USDA will make in this round of numbers. There’s some talk of a lower yield guess, but given the relative lack of harvest progress, any major changes might be delayed until November or later. The trade is monitoring planting in South America as well. AgRural says Brazil’s southern states have nearly wrapped up first crop planting, with excessively wet weather and pests both significant concerns. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports 14% of Argentina’s new crop is planted. France AgriMer says 27% of that nation’s corn crop has been harvested.

The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying. Contracts are oversold and dry weather a big concern for Australia and Argentina. There has been some limited rainfall recently in southeastern Australia, but overall, last month was the driest September on record for that country, while the Rosario Grain Exchange says this year’s crop in Argentina could be even smaller than last year’s crop due to renewed drought. Russia remains in control of the export market, while continuing to attack Ukraine. IKAR increased its outlook for Russia’s 2023 grain crop to 141.2 million tons, projecting 2023/24 exports at 64.5 million tons. Ukraine is still exporting grain, just at lower levels and using different routes since the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The impact of the emerging conflict in Israel on trade is unknown.