Market News

Soybeans, corn end session higher on weather concerns

Soybeans were higher on short covering and technical buying. Medium-range forecasts continue to look hot and dry for most of the region, potentially stressing beans, especially if the conditions persist into mid-August, as expected. August is generally the critical month for U.S. soybean development. Unknown destinations bought 264,000 tons of new crop U.S. beans, the second major announced sale of 2024/25 U.S. beans in the past week. Last week’s old crop sales were bearish, mainly to the Netherlands and Indonesia, but new crop sales were strong, with unknown destinations topping the list. At least outright, China only bought a small amount of 2023/24 U.S. beans and nothing for 2024/25. That’s due at least in part to strong demand from China for beans from Brazil. The USDA’s next supply and demand update is out August 12^th, with CONAB’s new outlook for Brazil set for the following day. Soybean meal was up on commercial demand, while bean oil was mixed on bear spreading.

Corn was higher on short covering and technical buying. Corn is monitoring the potential stress from the hot, dry weather on tap for most of the Corn Belt, but that will partially depend on the severity and duration of the event. The big question for corn continues to be acreage following the storms and flooding during key parts of the growing season. Old crop U.S. corn sales were below a week ago, but shipments remain on pace to meet USDSA projections. The leading old crop buyers were Japan and Mexico, with a cancelation by unknown destinations. New crop sales were solid, mainly to Japan, Mexico, and unknown. The USDA’s attaché in Argentina estimates 2024/25 corn production at 49 million tons, compared to the 2023/24 total of 51 million because of expectations for lower planted area, with exports seen at 36 million tons, compared to 34 million the previous marketing year.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. Wheat export sales were down on the week as Russia continues to dominate the global market, even with U.S. soft red winter now much more competitively priced. South Korea and Nigeria were the big buyers last week, but there was also a notable cancelation by unknown destinations, along with a handful of other buyers. It’s still early in 2024/25, but sales and shipments remain on pace to meet the USDA’s target. Those losses were despite some U.S. and world weather concerns, including potential heat stress in the northern U.S. Plains and Canada, expanding drought in Russia and Ukraine, and quality issues in France and Germany. The USDA’s attaché in Argentina estimates 2024/25 wheat production at 18.6 million tons, up 600,000 from the official guess because of higher planted area, and above the 2023/24 total of 15.7 million tons. 2024/25 exports are projected at 12.4 million tons, compared to 9.2 million in 2023/24. The attaché in Canada has total wheat production at 35.5 million tons for 2024/25, compared to 31.954 million in 2023/24 thanks to better conditions in the Prairies. Exports for the marketing year starting August 1^st are pegged at 25.7 million tons, compared to 24 million in the current marketing year.