Market News

Soybeans, corn end session in the red

Soybeans were lower on speculative and technical selling. There has been scattered rain in parts of the Midwest and while coverage was not widespread, it was generally welcome. It’s been a dry August for most of the region and there is the possibility of crop stress from the recent high temperatures, but the market largely remains locked in on record yield expectations. China did buy 264,000 tons of new crop U.S. beans, with the new marketing year for soybeans, and corn, starting Sunday, September 1^st. The USDA’s weekly U.S. sales numbers are out Thursday morning. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher, unwinding product spreads. Statistics Canada estimates 2024 canola production at 19.502 million tons, which would be up 1.6% from 2023, with soybean production at 7.15 million tons, 2.4% higher.

Corn was lower on speculative and technical selling. Corn was monitoring late development weather and early harvest activity in the southern Corn Belt. There’s likely been at least some crop stress, but for now, the projected recent national yield and potential for new crop stocks to top 2 billion bushels are bearish. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers is out September 12^th. Ahead of the open, Mexico bought 165,735 tons of new crop U.S. corn and Colombia purchased 100,000 tons. That pushes the two-day total for purchases to more than 390,000 tons, all for 2024/25 delivery.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production last week averaged 1.071 million barrels a day, down 27,000 on the week, but up 64,000 ton the year, while stocks were reported at 23.572 million barrels, 2,000 less than a week ago, but 1.963 million more than a year ago. Ethanol exports averaged 145,000 barrels a day, a jump of 63,000 from the prior week and 76,000 from last year. Corn is also monitoring late second crop harvest and early first crop planting in Brazil. Statistics Canada sees Canada’s corn for grain crop in 2024 at 15.229 million tons, down 1.2% on the year.

The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying. Wheat’s oversold, keeping an eye on good spring wheat yields but there are quality concerns in parts of the northern U.S. Plains due to heavy rain and high heat. Weather has also impacted quality and yields in France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine, and could create some issues in Argentina. France’s AgriMer says test weights and protein for this year’s crop were below five-year averages. Hot, dry weather in the southern Plains is an issue ahead of hard red winter wheat planting, but portions of that growing region could see some rainfall soon. Dry conditions are also a factor in some soft red winter growing areas. Statistics Canada projects Canada’s total wheat crop this year at 34.373 million tons, potentially up 4.3% from last year, including 25.351 million tons of spring wheat, a decline of 0.7%. India’s domestic wheat prices continue to move higher with ongoing chatter that Delhi will remove import tariffs, but no action. The trade is also waiting for Egypt to fill the remainder of their 3.8-million-ton wheat import tender.