Market News

Soybeans, corn end session with modest gains

Soybeans were higher on short covering and technical buying. South American weather appears largely favorable over the near-term. There’s more at least scattered rain in some forecasts for Argentina and harvest conditions in Brazil mostly look good. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers is out March 11^th, with CONAB’s new outlook for Brazil set for March 13^th. There was some support from talk of a new trade deal with China, but it remains to be seen how much of that is real and how much is just rhetoric. There’s was talk during the session that China bought soybeans from Brazil this week and India canceled previously purchased palm oil, switching to soybean oil due to price. Soybean meal and oil were up on demand expectations. Soybean meal and oil were supported by demand expectations.

Corn was higher on short covering and technical buying. Corn is monitoring that development weather in Argentina and the second crop planting pace in Brazil. Overall demand is solid and there’s talk of increased U.S. acreage. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production averaged 1.084 million barrels per day, up 2,000 on the week and unchanged on the year, while stocks were reported at 26.218 million barrels, an increase of 526,000 from the previous week and 716,000 from the year before, and exports averaged 138,000 barrels per day, a decline of 12,000 from the week prior and 32,000 from a year ago. The USDA’s 2025 Prospective Plantings report is out at the end of March, along with quarterly grain stocks numbers.

The wheat complex was lower on profit taking and technical selling. Wheat in parts of the Midwest and Plains might have experienced winterkill, but that can’t really be quantified until spring. The trade is also watching development conditions in India, Europe, and the Black Sea region. Wheat is waiting to see what happens next in Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine and how that could impact trade. A big question mark right now is how much business the U.S. get now that Russia’s grain export cap is in effect and how much will go to other exporters. The USDA’s delayed weekly sales numbers are out Friday morning.