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Soybeans, corn fall on rain in South America

Soybeans were sharply lower on profit taking and technical selling. There’s rain in the forecast for dry parts of South America over the next few days, including portions of Argentina and southern Brazil. Early harvest activity is underway in parts of Brazil. The Rosario Grain Exchange has not lowered its projection for Argentina yet but does expect production to fall below the current range of 53 million to 53.5 million tons, with 8% of the crop at the pod filling stage. China bought 132,000 tons of U.S. soybeans Thursday morning, pushing the week’s announced 2024/25 sales total to 528,000 tons. U.S. sales last week were up from the previous week, but lower than average at 20.9 million bushels. China and Bangladesh led the way, while unknown destinations made a substantial cancellation. Soybean products were also pressured by the more favorable weather outlooks for parts of Argentina and Brazil, with bean oil picking up additional pressure from a drop in crude oil and meal seeing selling tied to the marketing year low for export sales.

Corn was lower on profit taking and technical selling. Corn is monitoring near-term weather and rain chances in South America. Crop stress has had an impact in Argentina, while conditions in Brazil are generally more favorable in central and northern growing areas. The big test for Brazil is the second crop, which is planted after soybeans are harvested. The USDA’s updated supply, demand, and production numbers are out February 11th, with CONAB’s new projections for Brazil to follow a couple of days later. The Rosario Grain Exchange now has Argentina’s corn crop at 48 million tons, compared to December’s range of 50 million to 51 million tons, with about 40% of the crop silking. Corn export sales of 40.3 million bushels bounced back from two consecutive weeks of holiday-related marketing year lows but were also impacted by a handful of cancelations led by unknown destinations. The week’s big buyers were Japan and South Korea. Thursday morning, Taiwan purchased 135,000 tons of 2024/25 U.S. corn.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. Weekly exports were above average at 18.9 million bushels, but the U.S. continues to see a lot of competition on the global market due to the relative strength of the dollar. The main 2024/25 buyers last week were South Korea and Taiwan, with an additional 300,000 bushels sold for 2025/26 delivery to Mexico and Peru. 2024/25 shipments were less than what’s needed to meet projections for the current marketing year. The trade’s watching development weather in the U.S, Europe, and the Black Sea region, which generally favors Ukraine over Russia, along with harvest activity in Argentina and Australia, and also waiting for Russia’s grain export cap to go into effect next month. SovEcon sees Russia’s wheat exports for January 2025 at 1.8 million to 2.2 million tons, compared to 3.6 million in January 2024, while projecting Ukraine’s exports for January at 800,000 tons, half of the year ago total. Part of that shortfall will be made up out of the southern hemisphere. In Europe, winter wheat production is expected to be up on the year thanks to increased planted area in France and Germany.

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