Market News

Soybeans, corn firm ahead of several USDA reports

Soybeans were higher on short covering and technical buying. The trade was getting ready for the USDA numbers out Friday, including the delayed export sales report. The big report day starts with those export sales numbers at 8:30 Eastern/7:30 Central, with the other numbers coming out at Noon Eastern/11 Central. Medium-term forecasts have a return to more favorable conditions in parts of Argentina and Brazil. The trade’s not expecting many USDA adjustments to South American production numbers this month. Early harvest activity is underway in parts of Brazil. CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil is out January 14^th. There was talking during the session China bought two cargoes of soybeans from Brazil. ANEC estimates Brazil’s soybean exports for January at 1.71 million tons, which would be down 30% on the year. The grain export lobby sees 2025 shipments at a record 110 million tons. Soybean meal was down and bean oil was up on the adjustment of product spreads.

Corn was higher on short covering and technical buying. Corn’s monitoring conditions in South America, while preparing for several market moving reports out at the end of the week. That includes quarterly grain stocks, the monthly supply and demand update, and the preliminary final 2024 production numbers. Ethanol production was down on from the prior week but remains at relatively high levels. The likely reason for the week-to-week decline was it being the week of the New Year, but there are also rising concerns about tighter margins. ANEC sees Brazil’s corn exports for January at 2.9 million tons, compared to 3.5 million a year ago. Similar to soybeans, ANEC is expecting a big year for corn exports out of Brazil, but a lot of that will depend on the performance of the second crop. Conditions have been mixed, with dry weather in southern growing areas against heavy rainfall in central Brazil.

The wheat complex was mixed, mostly modestly lower. Some southern growing areas will see a soil moisture recharging winter storm into Friday. That’s expected to stretch from wheat growing parts of the U.S. Plains into the southeastern U.S. The USDA’s winter wheat planted area numbers are out Friday. The trade will also be watching any global supply and demand estimates very closely. That could include production updates for Argentina and Australia, or export adjustments for Russia and Ukraine. India’s government projects 2025/26 wheat production at 112.7 million tons, unchanged from their last guess, with generally favorable soil moisture levels in the main production areas, even with the recent drier weather pattern.