Market News

Soybeans, corn firm, wheat mixed ahead of July 4th

Soybeans were modestly higher on short covering and technical buying, padding the weekly gains slightly. Unknown destinations bought 226,000 tons of old crop U.S. beans ahead of the open, along with 45,000 tons of old and 150,000 tons of new crop bean meal. Weekly old crop soybeans were fell short of the five-week average at 17 million bushels, unknown destinations and Mexico were the big weekly buyers. New crop sales were above a week ago at 8.8 million bushels, headlined by Mexico, Bangladesh and Pakistan. Old or new crop, China officially remained absent due to Brazil’s current export market dominance and the tariff tensions with the U.S. Near-term development weather looks favorable in most areas. Soybean meal futures were higher, and bean oil was lower on product spread adjustments ahead of the long holiday weekend.

Corn was modestly higher on short covering and technical buying, closing the short week out with decent gains. Corn is monitoring development conditions, which continue to look non-threatening until at least mid-month. Corn is also watching harvest activity in Argentina and Brazil. CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil’s critical second crop is out July 10th. Unknown destinations bought 150,000 tons of old crop U.S. corn Thursday morning, while the weekly new crop sales were solid at 37 million bushels, primarily to Mexico and unknown destinations. Old crop sales were below average at 21 million bushels, with South Korea and Mexico topping the list. The Renewable Fuels Association says May ethanol exports of 184.7 million gallons were a monthly record and up 7% from April. Canada was the top destination yet again, with the United Kingdom, Colombia, European Union, and South Korea rounding out the top five. DDGS exports of 918,108 tons were 3% higher than the previous month, mainly to Mexico, South Korea, and Indonesia. For 2025 to date, ethanol exports are 10% ahead of 2024, but DDGS exports are 7% behind last year. The USDA’s attaché for China estimates 2025/26 corn production at 298 million tons, compared to 294.917 million in 2024/25, with imports of 8 million tons, compared to 7 million during the current marketing year.

The wheat complex was mixed, mostly lower, while ending the week higher in the most active months. There could be more near-term winter wheat harvest delays in parts of the central Plains, but the trade is still expecting solid progress in the USDA’s weekly crop update out Monday afternoon. Drought conditions have expanded in some spring wheat growing areas in the northern U.S. Plains and Canada, which could limit production potential. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production estimates is out July 11^th. U.S. wheat export sales saw a week-to-week improvement at 21.5 million bushels, mostly to the Philippines and Thailand. A grain union in Ukraine says it expects to start exporting wheat by mid-July. Russia’s Ag Ministry says the grain harvest is significantly slower than normal but didn’t offer an explanation. The USDA’s attaché for China has 2025/26 wheat production at 141 million tons, a little bit below the last official guess, but just above the 2024/25 total of 140.099 million. Imports for the current marketing year are expected to be 6 million tons, compared to 4.5 million last marketing year, with feed use also expected to be up.